Lib Dems hope to paint Wales gold - but could face a wipeout

It is either Going for Gold or Total Wipeout for the Liberal Democrats at next year's Senedd election.

If the party plays its cards right, Welsh leader Jane Dodds is still confident they could "paint Wales Lib Dem gold" on election night.

But recent polling suggests a darker outlook.

One Welsh polling expert said the party was looking at two seats in an expanded 96-seat Senedd, but could just as easily face a wipeout.

Dodds, the party's only Member of the Senedd (MS), made her bold prediction last autumn and is standing by it, with the election now just over a year away.

She is taking inspiration from the record showing at last year's general election, albeit when they won just one Welsh seat.

"We'll have gold everywhere. Look at what we did in England. No-one thought we would win 72 seats. The results were coming in fast and furious that night and I reckon it is going to be like that next May as well," she said.

She was less bullish about exactly how many seats her party would win, saying that she would "love for me to find a leader" who would commit to that sort of prediction.

But later, in a discussion about her role in helping to pass the Welsh government's budget last month, she perhaps let slip the sort of numbers the Lib Dems were looking at.

"That is what we did and that is what we delivered with one Senedd member," she said.

"So imagine what we could do with a whole handful across Wales."

Dr Jac Larner from Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University said the Lib Dems could win two seats but had their work cut out, especially if current polling comes to pass with the four bigger parties - Labour, Plaid Cymru, Conservatives and Reform - on roughly 20% each.

"What that means is that in every constituency there would be an effective electoral threshold of 13, 14 or maybe 15%, so if you can't win that share of the vote or higher, you are not going to win any seats and that really squeezes these smaller parties," he said.

He added it was "equally as likely" that the party would fail to win any seats at all.

There will be a new voting system for next year's Senedd election with 16 constituencies each returning six MSs via proportional representation, meaning parties are rewarded for the percentage share of the vote they win.

The Lib Dems would hope to pick up a seat in the new Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf constituency, where they have strong council representation in the suburbs around Roath Park.

They held the old Cardiff Central seat in the Senedd and the House of Commons, before paying the price for their well-documented change of heart on student tuition fees and for being part of a coalition with the Conservatives at Westminster from 2010.

In Cardiff, there were mixed responses to the party from people enjoying the sunshine earlier this week.

There was also disillusionment with Labour, and strong support for Reform.

One voter, who did not want to give his name, said the Lib Dems "sounded a lot more appealing than the other parties out there. They seem to be guided a bit more by reason than by feeling".

Becca said she had switched from Labour to the Lib Dems at the general election "mainly because Labour's language around things like immigration was becoming more divisive".

She said she was considering Lib Dems again or Plaid Cymru next May.

April told us that the Lib Dems were not on her radar at all.

"The whole country has gone to pot," she said.

"The guy who was running it, who brought in all these 20mph speed restrictions [former Labour First Minister Mark Drakeford] was ridiculous," she said.

She said she would vote Reform "because they are doing something a little bit different, so why not give them a try?"

Joey said he had recently joined Nigel Farage's party, and described UK Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey's recent local English election campaign launch, during which he rode a hobbyhorse as "absurd".

"Reform are the only party to save us," he said.

"Immigration is big on everybody's mind.

"I've never been a Labour person. My parents were, but I'm sure they'd turn in their grave at this shower of people who are in charge now."

Dodds said she was picking up on voters' desire for change and that her party was the best option for that.

But she has a lot of work to do before she can safely dig out the paintbrush.