Could paying £5 for a coffee soon become the norm?

Could paying £5 for a standard cup of coffee soon become the norm? That's the fear among some coffee shop owners, who say it won't help their business. An organisation that analyses the sector says it could be a reality within two to three years.

"If we thought that a couple of years ago, we would have laughed at it", says Nicola Lockwood, owner of Bells Tea Shop in Lincoln.

"I am in quite a lot of [online] groups with coffee shop owners and the chat there is that £5 for a cup of coffee is going to be the norm. In some places, it's already hitting that.

"Some people have a coffee every day on their way to work. If you add that up over a week, month, year, you are talking a substantial amount of money.

"It might make some people think twice about it."

In Hull, Karen Wattam, of Garden Village Tearoom, thinks that will not go down well with her customers if the price does reach that.

"I just think it would be too much," she says.

"I think we'd lose a lot of business. In Hull, especially where we are, you can't command that much."

Jeffrey Young, CEO and founder of Allegra World Coffee Portal, which provides market research for coffee professionals, says the £5 cup of coffee is already the case in some shops.

"Larger drinks with add-ons, such as syrups and non-dairy milk, often bring the price to £5 already," he says.

"I remember 20 years ago, we were worried about the tipping point being £2.

"Here we are now talking about the £5 cup of coffee. Realistically, for the average consumer, it's two or three years away, but for many it is the reality now."

The price of coffee on international commodity markets hit its highest level on record in December 2024.

The price for arabica beans, which account for most global production, jumped more than 80% in the year. The cost of robusta beans hit a fresh high in September.

Coffee traders said they expected crops to shrink after the world's two largest producers, Brazil and Vietnam, were hit by bad weather.

Paul Rooke, executive director of the British Coffee Association, says weather-related issues have had an impact on prices, but that the beans are only part of the equation, with increasing energy, labour and business costs for cafe owners also pushing up prices.

While higher prices will not be welcomed by consumers, Mr Rooke believes it is good news for producers, who could get a bigger return for their produce.

Nicola, whose tearoom is nestled in the heart of the city's Bailgate area and attracts a lot of tourists, charges less than £3 for an Americano coffee, but admits she may have to increase her prices.

"Coffee prices and chocolate bean prices are going through the roof at the minute," she explains.

"There was a little dip, but now it's skyrocketed again.

"We are getting messages through from our suppliers saying that the prices are going up and that they are going up significantly."

Elsewhere in Lincolnshire, Nic Till, who owns Riverhead Coffee shops in Grimsby and Cleethorpes, says additional extras can push the price over £5 but "cannot see anywhere in North East Lincolnshire that's going to be charging that for a cappuccino or a flat white".

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