Spain's conservatives miss out on all-out victory as left celebrates

Spain has entered a phase of political uncertainty that could see the country return to the polls in just a few months.

Sunday's snap election failed to produce a decisive winner.

The conservative People's Party (PP) won the most seats but fell short of a parliamentary majority, even with the support of the far-right Vox party.

Now, the conservatives and the incumbent Socialists will both separately try to form coalitions.

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo and his rival, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, will each begin negotiations on Monday to try to head off a fresh vote, which might take place by the end of 2023.

As the leader of the party that won the most votes, Mr Feijóo will be invited by King Felipe VI to try to form a government. If Mr Feijóo declines on the grounds that he cannot muster enough support - as former PP leader Mariano Rajoy did in a similar situation in 2015 - the king may turn to Mr Sánchez.

If the candidate accepts the king's invitation, he then has two months to secure a majority.

Failing that, new elections must be held.

PP official Borja Sémper said Mr Sánchez is the first person Mr Feijóo will call to ask him to agree to support the PP in forming a "solo government with specific agreements" - a request the Socialist prime minister is unlikely to agree to.

Despite the inconclusive results, Mr Feijóo told cheering conservative supporters that it was now his duty to try to form a government.

"Spaniards know we have gone from being the second force to the party with the most votes," he said, adding: "I hope this doesn't start a period of uncertainty in Spain."

But that is what Spain is facing. Because with far-right party Vox on 33 seats and Mr Feijóo's PP on 136, they would be seven seats short of an absolute majority of 176 in parliament.

That is why Mr Sánchez's Socialists and his far-left allies Sumar appeared happiest in the wake of the results.

"The reactionary bloc of regression, which set out a complete reversal of all the advances that we've achieved over the past four years, has failed," he told supporters.

One Spanish website, El Español, said that despite the PP's victory, Mr Sánchez still had a chance of forming a government.

But those very slim chances would require going even further than before in securing separatist support.

Mr Sanchez would need the support of hardline, pro-independence party Together for Catalonia (Junts). But its leader, Carles Puigdemont, who has been living in self-imposed exile in Belgium since Catalonia's failed independence bid in 2017, said earlier this month that Junts would not support either the Socialists or the PP.

On Monday, the party's general secretary Jordi Turull seemed to indicate the party could use its new kingmaker status as a bargaining chip to advance the cause of Catalan independence.

But although Mr Sánchez has taken steps to normalise relations with the separatists by pardoning jailed pro-independence leaders and downgrading the crime of secession, he has repeatedly and firmly said that he would not allow Catalonia to hold a referendum on self-determination.

While PP leader Mr Feijóo declared victory after the results were announced, one of the few leaders who showed no sign of celebrating was far-right Vox leader Santiago Abascal. "It's a day of concern," he said on Sunday night.

Political analyst Iago Moreno said the far right blamed the conservative PP for "complicity in the demonisation of Vox", seeing Sunday's result as the beginning of a journey to a "second round" which could come by Christmas.

"We have not achieved our objectives to kick Pedro Sanchez out... There will probably be another election where we can make this happen," Mr Abascal said.

While the Socialist leader and Sumar put on a show of unity in a TV debate last week, conservative leader Mr Feijóo was conspicuously absent, giving the impression that Vox was on its own.

But Vox voters did come out in force, backing Mr Abascal's platform of anti-immigration and anti-feminism. Many saw him as their best hope of defending Spain's traditional values.

Turnout topped 70% on Sunday, as voters sensed the importance of this rare mid-summer election. That was partly due to almost 2.5 million postal votes being cast, but polling stations were busiest in the morning before the heat took hold.

Vox remains the third biggest party, with the support of three million of Spain's 37 million voters, but not significantly ahead of Sumar and with a big drop in seat numbers.

Voting numbers were buoyed on Sunday by 1.6 million young voters having the right to take part in the election for the first time.

An estimated 10 million Spaniards are already on holiday and one man at a coastal polling station made a point of wearing a snorkel and flippers.

Many voters said they felt there was too much at stake in this election, even if it was being held in mid-summer. One father of three, called Sergio, told the BBC that many people he knew were anxious and angry that an extreme-right party might end up in government.