Covid: Hope but not complacency' after Merthyr cases fall

Just before Christmas Merthyr Tydfil held the title no-one wants, when the county topped the highest case rate table for Covid-19 in the UK.

Just weeks on though, the picture here and across the south Wales valleys is considerably different with infection rates now among the UK's lowest.

And as the vaccine rollout continues there is a small but growing feeling of hope in this tight-knit area.

Health officials are warning that while the turnaround is good news, with new variants in Wales it is important people do not drop their guard.

Public Health Wales said Covid case numbers had "reduced substantially" and thanked the public for their efforts.

"With the UK variant circulating throughout Wales being up to 70% more transmissible then it's vitally important that everyone continues to stay vigilant, to avoid rates going back up again," a spokeswoman said.

According to the most recent data (up to 29 January), 195 people have died with Covid-19 in Merthyr Tydfil, while it has the fifth highest rate for its population, across England and Wales.

In the autumn outbreaks confirmed at hospitals, with 53 people dying after 222 cases were linked to Prince Charles Hospital and the community became the first in Wales to have mass-testing as case numbers rose.

On 5 November, Merthyr Tydfil was thrust into the UK spotlight with its case rates.

The county recorded 741 cases per 100,000 people during a seven day period. Cases in neighbouring Rhondda Cynon Taf and Blaenau Gwent were also very high.

This was shortly before the end of a "firebreak" lockdown and there were fears that with people in Merthyr already having been under local restriction for weeks, cases would rise further as people were able to travel and mix again.

Case rates continued to climb until they peaked at 1,349 on 18 December, the day Wales was placed under a national lockdown.

Fast forward just weeks and the county recorded one of the lowest case rates - 72.9 cases per 100,000 of the population - according to stats published last Wednesday.

In recent days this has begun to creep back, with the rate standing at 116 on Tuesday, but it remains in the lowest 60 areas for Covid in the UK.

While weekly case rates are comparably low, numbers of people dying in Merthyr with Covid-19 on their death certificate, on a weekly basis, have increased since the start of the national lockdown in December.

After going into Prince Charles Hospital for an injury in January and speaking to staff about the sheer amount of Covid patients they were seeing, Thomas Llewellyn decided to act.

The artist, from Pant, took up his spray can and painted a colourful mural urging people to wear masks and help the NHS, right outside the vaccine centre.

"You could just tell they were overwhelmed. Even though I can't really do anything with a painting, but if I can get a message out to people, I feel like I've done something," he said.

The father-of-two, known as Tee2Sugars, creates images of NHS workers and "town heroes" across the valleys. They illustrate the drive to change a reputation created by a "small few" about people living in these tight-knit areas.

In the last weekend of February, South Wales Police were called to reports of a number of house parties in the county - which are banned under Covid law.

Mr Llewellyn said most people were trying very hard to obey rules but in some supermarkets it was a "free for all" with people leaning over each other to get items.

"I think everybody just wants to get to the other end now... but there's the few that are ruining it.

"A lot of people have lost a lot of close family... I just wanted to get a positive image out there to show a little bit of hope that we can get to the other side."

While it is not yet clear exactly how case rates have fallen in the area Merthyr, like the rest of Wales, has now been under strict level-four rules for seven weeks.

Health and council officials had blamed the high case rate in valleys communities on their tight-knit nature, with people living close to extended family and popping round to check on neighbours.

In an area with high rates of deprivation, there were also concerns about people having to make tough choices between going to work to get a pay cheque and isolating if contacted by tracers.

Member of the Senedd Dawn Bowden, said she believed cases were now falling because this lockdown had been longer and stricter while more people seemed to be sticking to the rules as the vaccine rolled out.

"We are still seeing some breaches of regulations, but we have also seen greater levels of mitigation measures required in shops and workplaces and greater levels of enforcement," she said.

"People I speak to are weary of the restrictions, but largely understand and support the need for them to both contain the spread of the virus and to ensure that the NHS isn't overwhelmed."

At Twyn Community Hub, there are hopes that with the falling case numbers and people being vaccinated, people will soon be able to meet outside, exercise and spend time together.

Since the start of the pandemic the organisation has provided hundreds of food parcels and hot meals to those shielding and people struggling financially.

While there was a feeling of hope, she said many were struggling with home schooling while still trying to work and the hub had seen an increase in mental health referrals.

There is also concern families and elderly people in the area may be struggling but not asking for help, as people were proud.

"We do feel like we've been locked down for a long time... there's massive frustration," she said.

"Everyone is trying to do their part, but everyone has had a gut full of it now."

Since the start of the pandemic more than 6,288 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Merthyr Tydfil, with people losing their jobs, falling ill, and losing loved ones due to the virus.

Almost 63,000 people have had their first dose of the vaccine since the roll out began in the Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board area.

O.P. Chocolate, one of the major employers in the area, said it was optimistic about the future because of the vaccine but understood it was "likely we will need to keep taking additional precautions for several more months at least".

A spokeswoman said case numbers among staff had remained low throughout, despite outbreaks at other factories in Wales last year.

"We have learnt a great deal over the last 12 months and believe the business is stronger having successfully dealt with the crisis," she said.