Covid-19: How mobile data shows journey patterns in Wales

Will the firebreak over the next two weeks affect how we behave?

Local lockdowns in Wales brought large reductions in trips by people - according to studies of mobile data.

Using Google location data, it is possible to calculate the changes in behaviour since before the pandemic at the start of the year.

It can show the drop in trips to restaurants, cafes and pubs, journeys to workplaces - and if we made more trips to parks and beaches.

The Welsh Government's scientific advisory group, the Technical Advisory Cell, has been studying mobile phone data trends as part of its regular monitoring of the pandemic and the public response to restrictions.

As well as Google, Facebook trends are also followed, and anonymised mobile data from O2 suggests "notable falls" in trips in all areas the day after most local lockdowns started on 28 September.

But after the initial dip, trips returned back to pre-lockdown levels in several areas after the first few days, with others still showing an overall reduction.

Google location data shows how Cardiff saw the biggest fall in Wales in trips to restaurants, cafes, pubs and other leisure attractions and retailers.

Pembrokeshire, Powys and Anglesey - areas not under the original local lockdown restrictions - saw the least fall-off.

When the location data for public transport, like bus and railway stations, are shown since the start of the year, the decline in commuting to the capital Cardiff is really noticeable.

There was a big drop-off when the first national lockdown happened in March.

It picked up a little, although it was still well below the normal levels and fell again during the recent local lockdown period. The latest snapshot sees a 58% decline.

Elsewhere, mobility trends in transport hubs are down across Wales, including Bridgend (-44%), Wrexham (-29%) and Newport (-28%).

Not surprisingly, all areas in Wales have seen a big drop in journeys to workplaces.

The largest fall has been in Cardiff, which also saw a 15% rise in trends for being around the home.

Pembrokeshire, Newport, Caerphilly and Powys have also seen workplace trips fall by a third.

The smallest changes have been in Blaenau Gwent and Anglesey.

The latest snapshot data for 20 October also shows how trips to parks, national parks, beaches and marinas have risen in many areas, compared with the start of the year.

The biggest rise has been in Conwy county, as well as other traditional tourist areas including Ceredigion, Swansea and Pembrokeshire which were up by about half.

Lowest rises were in Rhondda Cynon Taf, Carmarthenshire and Monmouthshire, while there was a decline in Cardiff.

Keeping an eye on the trends in how we are moving around - or staying put - will be part of the decision-making in how the latest lockdowns are eased.