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Has Rishi Sunak seen off latest Tory wobbles?

Ex-minister Sir Simon Clarke warns his party is heading for "a shattering defeat"

No one likes that guy who is shouting "iceberg!"

Sir Simon Clarke is sitting opposite me in a studio in Westminster, his bags packed and ready for his trip back to Teesside after our interview.

"But I suspect people will be even less happy if we hit the iceberg," he tells me. "And we are on course to do that."

He worries for the Conservatives' future. He worries for his own future as an MP.

The big question when his public declaration dropped in the Telegraph late on Tuesday night, was would this be the start of a trickle or even an avalanche of other Conservatives saying the same thing?

The answer was that it was neither. He was on his own. Plenty went out of their way to do the opposite of backing him.

Instead they put the boot in - publicly, privately and on Conservative WhatsApp groups. Although, I notice, both Boris Johnson and Suella Braverman offered no public view.

Shedloads of Conservative MPs are furious with him.

PA Media Sir Simon Clarke outside Downing StreetPA Media
Sir Simon Clarke said he wasn't surprised by the hostile reaction - but he hinted he believes more Tory MPs could follow his lead if forthcoming by-elections don't go the party's way

It does seem to have bound some in the party together, including those who might not normally agree on stuff.

The Conservative Parliamentary Party got together on Wednesday night for a "family photo" as they're called. The widespread view was talk of changing leader was bonkers.

But, it is worth taking a step back to understand what is driving all of this: the prospect of defeat at the general election.

The vast majority of Conservative MPs I speak to, right now at least, however bleak their private assessment of the party's prospects at the election - and bleak it almost always is - think their best bet is to keep chugging on and keep their heads down.

PA Media Rishi Sunak at PMQsPA Media
At PMQs Sir Keir Starmer accused Rishi Sunak of being "bullied" by his own party - after Sir Simon Clarke called for him to be replaced as PM

Some are pretty candid privately in their assessment of Rishi Sunak as a leader, but think any attempt to replace him would look absurd or be unachievable.

And then there are those, like Sir Simon, who think they'd be better off without him, even though deposing him would provoke turbulence and ridicule.

Sir Simon's intervention doubles those publicly of that view. Doubles it from one to two. The number who share that assessment privately is greater, but they are a small minority.

PA Media Chris SkidmorePA Media
Chris Skidmore, who resigned over the government's plans to boost oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, is one of two MPs who will be replaced in February

As a sidebar to all of this, a former relatively junior special adviser in Downing Street has left and is now working for the collection of Conservatives trying to remove Rishi Sunak.

Will Dry worked in No10 until just before Christmas.

He now works for the Conservative Britain Alliance, the group behind the opinion poll also published by the Telegraph which suggested the Tories would go down to a catastrophic election defeat.

Quite who is funding the alliance, or indeed paid for the opinion poll remains unclear.

Even Sir Simon, who based his analysis of the party's near future upon it, told me he didn't know.

"The Conservatives are heading for the most almighty of defeats," Mr Dry himself believes.

All of this forms the political backdrop against which Rishi Sunak is attempting to govern and to campaign ahead of the election.

With two tricky by-elections coming next month and a tricky set of local, mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections to follow in May, the big question is how moments like these shape the mood, instincts and actions of Conservative MPs, if the party's prospects continue to look dire.