Are Tory MPs plotting to get rid of Rishi Sunak?

An opinion poll paid for by a previously unheard of group of unidentified Conservatives, the Conservative Britain Alliance.

A poll talked up and worked on by Tory peer Lord Frost, a long-standing critic of Rishi Sunak.

A poll timed and in its questioning framed, it would appear, to inflict maximum damage on the prime minister - published just as MPs were contemplating how to vote on the government's Rwanda plan.

The three biggest rebellions of Mr Sunak's premiership on proposed changes to that migrant plan and then a shrivelled rebellion of 11 on rejecting the plan in its entirety.

Next, yet another grouping of Conservative agitators, calling themselves "Popular Conservatism".

What could they possibly be comparing themselves to? Among their number the former Prime Minister Liz Truss, and yes, you guessed it, Sir Simon Clarke.

And now the latest twist, Sir Simon's devastating public critique of the prime minister, coming a sufficient number of days later that it can capture the political agenda, and not merely become a sidebar to last week's noise.

The argument Sir Simon is making is the poll suggests the Conservatives would be better off with another Conservative leader willing to be more robust on immigration and tax cuts.

It is worth noting, as Patrick English from YouGov, the polling company that carried out the work acknowledged on the Today programme on Radio 4 this morning, the answers to this kind of questioning "comes with a huge amount of caveats" - as those polled are being asked to pick between existing leaders - such as Labour's Sir Keir Starmer - and a hypothetical one a voter can build in the image that they choose in their own mind.

But Sir Simon is making the argument nonetheless; his allies making a slightly broader case that it at least suggests Mr Sunak is now a drain on Conservative support, less popular than his party, rather than the opposite.

The question now is what happens next.

All of this is a symptom of the central issue: privately Conservative MPs fear they are going to lose, and perhaps lose big time.

Most, for now at least, have decided the only thing that can do is plod on - attempt to demonstrate steady competence, point to a steadily improving economy and progress on illegal immigration, for instance.

Others, a clump of the not just doom-laden but downright disaffected, are so convinced of the party's imminent possible oblivion that they feel compelled to act now.

Sir Simon is one of them, but he's not alone.

There are parallel processes here, one private, the other public.

If 53 Conservative MPs privately write to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, there would be a vote of confidence in the prime minister.

A vote, incidentally, he would be likely to win - itself a factor in shaping how some Conservative MPs behave - for why provoke a vote of confidence in order to replace the leader if the likely outcome is a huge public row but no actual change at the top?

We don't know and Conservative MPs can't even be certain how many letters have been submitted.

It is a never-ending parlour game at Westminster, best short-circuited like this: there aren't enough letters until we know that there are, when Sir Graham announces the threshold has been met.

Until then, there is talk of letters, talk of letters being written, talk of letters being sent, talk of letters being withdrawn. Lots of talk, next to no facts.

Some talk of a handful of letters, some talk of a dozen, some talk of more. Only Sir Graham knows for certain.

Then there is the public argument, which is often and is certainly in this case behind the private one.

The public argument provokes yet another spat that is very visible - with the potential that could tempt some more MPs to follow suit. Or it could persuade others that is a terrible idea.

Let's see how many others are willing to break cover.

So, are MPs plotting to get rid of Mr Sunak?

That word "plot", beloved of journalists, often obscures and exaggerates more than it enlightens - better, I think, to set out the facts as we know them and you can come to your own conclusion.

Is there coordinated, even if loose in parts, stewing, conversations, anxiety about what, if anything, Conservative MPs should do next? Yes.

What happens next? Well, the perennial question.

And here's the perennial answer: I'm trying to find out and I'll let you know what we turn up.