Covid: PM calls for 'unity' as he agrees to publish data behind new tiers

Boris Johnson has agreed to publish the health, economic and social data behind England's new tier system later, as he seeks to avert a Commons rebellion.

MPs will vote on the measures on Tuesday, and numerous Conservative MPs have demanded to see the evidence government is basing its new system on.

Writing to a group of around 70 MPs - who are sceptical of the new rules - Mr Johnson called for "unity and resolve".

Labour is expected to support the PM, but is yet to confirm its stance.

If Labour does decide to get behind the new tier system, the government should easily win the vote - even if there is a sizeable revolt among Conservative MPs.

The information is expected to include data first published by the Office for Budget Responsibility last week.

England's new system - due to replace the national lockdown when it expires on Wednesday - will see regions placed in one of three tiers: medium, high and very high.

Nearly all of England will be in the highest two tiers, with tight restrictions on bars and restaurants and a ban on households mixing indoors. Only Cornwall, the Isle of Wight and Isles of Scilly will be in the lowest tier.

The PM's letter to Tories from the Covid Recovery Group is his second letter to colleagues over the weekend, as he seeks to reassure them about the measures.

In an earlier letter to all MPs and peers, the prime minister said the rules in some areas could be eased in December, MPs could vote again on the measures in January, and the tier system could end on 3 February.

But some Conservative MPs have complained their constituencies are entering one of the tougher tiers, despite cases in their areas falling, and asked to see the data behind the measures.

The contents of one document could determine the size of Tuesday's Conservative revolt.

The government has conceded a key demand of the rebels - to produce an assessment of the economic and social impact of the restrictions.

Put very crudely, MPs want to know if the lives these tiers will save will outweigh livelihoods that will be lost.

Privately, some other potential rebels are indicating they are prepared to be convinced by the government's arguments.

And Mr Johnson's efforts to win over his sceptics seem to be making some headway.

The former minister Conor Burns - an old ally of Mr Johnson's - had been critical of how the government intended to impose its restrictions.

But he told the Westminster Hour he won't be voting against them, saying: "We've got the vaccine coming over the horizon. If the government really feels we need to do this then I'm probably prepared to swallow hard and support them."

But some other potential rebels have told the BBC that they are withholding their support unless and until they see the hard data behind the PM's decisions.

In his letter to the Covid Recovery Group, Mr Johnson said he'd "responded positively" to their "constructive proposals". The next 24 hours will see him continue the campaign of persuasion with his own backbenchers.

Conservative MP Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group, said he was "particularly concerned about some of the non-Covid health implications these restrictions have been having".

And he urged the government to publish details of what extra support would be made available, as well as a cost-benefit analysis of the new tier system before Tuesday's vote.

Conservative West Midlands Mayor Andy Street has asked Chancellor Rishi Sunak to increase the grants given to businesses. He said the hospitality sector in his region is "facing crisis".

Speaking during a visit to a pharmaceutical manufacturers in Wales, Mr Johnson said he understood people's "frustrations" particularly those in the hospitality sector.

He said the best thing for the industry would be to "keep the virus under control, use mass testing, roll that out in ever greater numbers, plus the vaccine if, as I hope, we can start to distribute them."

In his letter to MPs, the PM also said the government would:

Speaking to the BBC, Environment Secretary George Eustice acknowledged a large number of Conservative MPs were "unsettled" and said the prime minister would be "working very hard" to reassure those MPs that he doesn't want to "maintain the measures for a moment longer than is necessary".

He added he would be surprised if Labour voted against the steps, adding "it is not the moment for any party to play politics."

Speaking at a virtual town hall with residents from Lancaster and Morecambe, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said there was a "need for restrictions" and that the Labour Party "has to act in the national interest".

He expressed concerned that the government "doesn't have the support package right" and said people in the North West "are tearing their hair out saying "we've been in restrictions for months and need better support.'"

Sir Keir and other members of the shadow cabinet are due to meet England's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty and the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance later, as they decide whether to vote with the government.

However, one Labour MP, Richard Burgon, has already said he will vote against the tier system, arguing that it will fail to lower the infection rate and make another lockdown more likely.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey described the system as "chaotic" and said his party would not back the measures until the prime minister addressed their concerns.

The party is urging the government to release the evidence underpinning the new system; commit to involving local authorities; and offer urgent support to pubs.

Meanwhile, a major study from Imperial College London has found that coronavirus infections in England fell by about a third over lockdown.

Some of the worst-hit areas saw the biggest improvements, but cases still remained high across England.

Researchers estimated that the virus's reproduction (R) rate had fallen to 0.88, meaning the epidemic is shrinking.

Elsewhere in the UK, Northern Ireland has begun a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown, while in Scotland each area has been placed in one of five tiers.

In Wales, First Minister Mark Drakeford announced new rules to tackle a rise in coronavirus cases which will come into force from 18:00 GMT on Friday.

On Sunday, a further 12,155 positive coronavirus test results were recorded across the UK, bringing the total to 1,617,327.

A further 215 deaths within 28 days of a positive test were also recorded, bringing the total to 58,245.