Scottish ministers begin budget talks with political rivals

Holyrood ministers have completed an initial round of budget talks with all five opposition parties.

They have started the discussions two months before they actually publish their draft budget for the year ahead because the Scottish government needs some help from their political rivals to get their plans approved.

Before the Greens were dropped from government, ministers had an in-built majority at Holyrood to pass budgets and other key laws.

But now they have to haggle and horsetrade for sufficient support.

That is why the government is already trying to work out what the priorities and red lines of other parties might be.

Public Finance Minister Ivan McKee reached out to all five opposition parties over the last couple of weeks for preliminary discussions.

It is unlikely the SNP could reach agreement with the Conservatives or Labour, and with only one MSP, Alba has insufficient clout.

That means a deal with either the Greens or Lib Dems is necessary.

Both of those parties want to be seen as serious players.

Senior Lib Dems say they would struggle to back a budget that included spending on a national care service or independence preparations.

Greens say the SNP needs to rebuild trust with them before talks can advance.

They want to know how delivery of any promises made to them could be guaranteed.

The Greens have an opposition debate on budget priorities in the Scottish Parliament on Wednesday afternoon.

In advance, they have been calling for new taxes on private jets and cruise ships and a public health levy on alcohol and tobacco retailers.

The Scottish government knows it will have to accommodate the demands of some of its rivals.

The preliminary talks seem to have started much earlier than when the SNP was last in a minority position.

This year’s Scottish budget is likely to be especially tricky given the pressure on the public finances linked to the impact of inflation and higher than expected public pay deals.

It will be set out in parliament on 4 December. The UK budget is announced at Westminster on 30 October.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has warned of “difficult decisions” on tax, spending and welfare after identifying a £22bn “black hole” in the public finances.

The decisions she takes will significantly shape the finances available to the Scottish government.

First Minister John Swinney told the Political Thinking podcast with Nick Robinson he would “work hard with other parties to secure agreement” on the Scottish budget.

Without that agreement, there could be significant problems in the flow of cash to key public services.

In certain circumstances, the fall of a budget could trigger fresh elections to the Scottish Parliament.