Labour: What's the difference between Gething and Miles' manifestos?

Ask anyone in the know for a prediction of the Welsh Labour leadership election, and they will probably tell you they don't really know.

A month and a few weeks in, and neither Vaughan Gething and Jeremy Miles are considered to be leading the other.

Part of what makes it tricky to take a punt is both are considered to be in the centre of the party, although arriving there from different directions.

They agree on a lot, as their manifestos show.

With two politicians who are cabinet ministers in the same government, we should not expect a stark contrast between them or for either to take Wales in a radically new direction.

But there are differences - like on dog licences and river pollution.

The prejudice they encountered while growing up in Wales shaped both candidates' politics.

Jeremy Miles says his experiences as a young gay man who "struggled to find my place in the world" influenced his commitment to equality.

Vaughan Gething says he doesn't want young people's sense of belonging to be questioned, as happened to him - the black son of a white father.

Both were lawyers before entering politics, but their careers followed different routes.

Mr Gething makes much of "choosing to become a trade union lawyer representing working people", while Miles says he knows the value of a thriving private sector, having spent nearly 20 years working in business.

Both manifestos contain ritual declarations to keep the NHS in public hands.

Frankly, it would be astonishing for any Welsh Labour politician to say otherwise.

His time as health minister during the pandemic is a big part of Mr Gething's pitch.

Despite opposing Mark Drakeford for the leadership in 2018, he stresses how they worked together to "keep Wales safe" from Covid-19.

The NHS has emerged from the crisis with enormous waiting lists - and Mr Miles's manifesto is explicit about the problem, saying the health service is at "breaking point".

One of his six key pledges is to cut waiting times with specialist centres for knee and hip operations.

Mr Gething has pointed out such centres are already opening and he has questioned how much further the policy can go.

Beyond that, their solutions for the service have a lot in common.

Both talk about patient outcomes - concentrating on the quality of care, rather than how long people wait to be treated.

A commitment to a national care services appears in both manifestos, but a concrete plan on how to fund it does not.

Both candidates make similar noises on the plans to reform bus services - which the government already has planned.

But their transport sections differ subtly, perhaps reflecting the debate around the Welsh government's existing policies.

Vaughan Gething is not about to scrap the 20mph speed limit but there's no mention of it in his manifesto.

He promises to "empower citizens" when ministers draw up transport policy.

It is possibly a nod to the criticism made by Gething-backer Ken Skates of the decision to scrap major road projects that it did not consider what the public thought.

Jeremy Miles does explicitly back the 20mph policy saying it would lead to safer roads.

However, he says the review of how that policy works should allow the public to give feedback.

Vaughan Gething said he would put the weight of the first minister's office behind achieving excellence in schools and colleges.

Both candidates promise to address the attainment gap - the difference between those who are from disadvantaged groups and those who aren't.

The current education minister, Jeremy Miles, specifically says the challenges facing some working class boys require a "fresh" approach.

He also promises to increase the share of the Welsh government budget spent on schools.

Both allude to looking again at the criteria for free school meals in secondary schools, and both talk about extending childcare - but when resources allow.

Wales, says Jeremy Miles, is too poor a country. So how does he plan to address that?

He says his priority is to grow the economy "sustainably" and capitalising on the "opportunities" from a green economy, while playing up his own experience of working in business before joining the Senedd.

On this the two hopefuls are on the same page.

Vaughan Gething, who is the economy minister now, does similar, talking about "green job creation", harnessing the country's "advantages" in clean energy and advanced manufacturing.

The pair both make commitments on fighting for steel in Port Talbot, although the main levers for that are at Westminster.

After a series of high-profile dog attacks, Mr Miles promises a review of dog licences.

Mr Gething says he would make Wales a leader in animal welfare, giving RSPCA officers more powers.

Water quality is another issue that's risen up the political agenda recently - and both have something to say about it.

Mr Miles's government would keep talking to the industry at "water quality summits".

The minister currently in charge of that has cautioned against fining water companies, saying it would leave them with less money to spend on infrastructure.

But in his manifesto, Mr Gething says he would introduce "stricter penalties for those who break environmental rules".