Welsh election: Labour manifesto more modest, say experts

Labour's Senedd election manifesto is offering more modest promises than its two main rivals, experts say.

It is based on a "cautious" prediction about the size of the budget compared to the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru, a Cardiff University study found.

However, all three of the parties' proposals lack detail, according to the fiscal analysis research team.

The academics say parties have not said enough about "tough choices" facing them if are in power after 6 May.

The analysis compared the likely cost of manifesto promises with forecasts for the Welsh Government's budget of around £17bn, the size of which is mostly set in Westminster.

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It found Labour had taken a "very different approach" to the Tories and Plaid, with "quite modest" new spending proposals and no specific commitments on day-to-day funding for schools and the NHS.

"I think it's probably indicative of them being cautious in terms of the prospects for the Welsh budget," said Guto Ifan of the analysis team.

Conservative promises to cut taxes, on top of new spending pledges, "overshoot our projected increase in the size of the Welsh budget", Mr Ifan said.

A Welsh Tory administration would need more cash from the UK government - something the analysis says is "likely" - or would have to cut other areas to pay for its promises.

Plaid's plans assume the budget will grow faster, which Mr Ifan said was "optimistic but not unreasonable".

Unlike the other parties, Plaid was offering big commitments in areas outside the NHS and schools "in a relatively tight budget".

A Welsh Labour spokesperson said: "Our commitments are deliverable within the budget and powers available to the Welsh Government. Our spending plans do not rely on increasing Welsh taxes and no commitments rely on the sign off of UK Tory ministers.

"This Welsh Labour government has invested more per head on NHS and social care compared with England and the next Welsh Labour government would go on doing so."

Eurfyl ap Gwilym from Plaid Cymru said: "The analysis confirms a previous report by two of Wales' leading economists that the Plaid Cymru manifesto is both achievable and realistic.

"As the Wales Fiscal Analysis clearly states, the Plaid Cymru manifesto contains 'far more specific spending and tax commitments than Labour' - a clear signal to voters that only a Plaid Cymru government can bring economic competency to the heart of government and new ideas to improve lives and livelihoods."

A Welsh Conservative spokesperson said: "Our manifesto has been fully costed to guarantee it delivers the shot in the arm the Welsh economy needs to recover from the pandemic and 22 years of Labour, delivering our national mission of creating 65,000 jobs and showing the world that Wales is open for businesses.

"It is only with a strong economy that we can invest in our public services and, once we have achieved our national mission of creating jobs across Wales, we will cut taxes for everyone."