Care funding needs overhaul to stop homes closing, its warned
There are around 500 fewer places in care homes in Wales than there were in 2015, figures show.
It comes as the number of people aged over 65 in Wales increased by around 100,000 in the 10 years to 2021.
Care Forum Wales said funding must be urgently overhauled as the number of homes closing due to costs has created a "really difficult" situation.
The Welsh government said it was a council and health board matter but added it was providing £70m this year.
There are 39 residents at Cartref Bodawen Care Home near Porthmadog, Gwynedd.
Between this home and another in Criccieth, also in Gwynedd, the company is at 97% capacity on average throughout the year.
Manager Ceri Roberts said this was the only way they could stay open.
"Food has gone up 20%, incontinence products up over 20%, utilities have doubled and insurance too," she said.
"There are no more homes opening here and there's no doubt we're going to see more care homes closing if nothing changes."
Ms Roberts said at least four other homes had recently closed in north Wales, leading to more than 160 beds going.
Care Inspectorate Wales Figures (CIW) showed there were 87 fewer care homes in March 2023 compared to 2015, as well as 520 fewer care home places in March 2022 compared to 2015.
CIW's annual report said the most common reasons for closure was cost, or operators simply tiring of running a home.
Care Forum Wales' boss Mary Wimbury told Newyddion S4C: "People are struggling, they've been through a really difficult few years because of the pandemic and now on top of that, high inflation, staff wages increasing, cost of food, heating, insurance."
Ms Wimbury said she expected the situation to deteriorate further before it improved and claimed local authority funding was not enough to cover basic requirements.
Older people's commissioner for Wales Helena Herklots said she wanted to see parity between social care work and similar NHS jobs.
"We are hearing about closures of care homes but also concerns about whether the care home their loved ones are in was going to close in the future," she said.
"It's creating uncertainty and anxiety among older people, family and their friends and they're also dealing with the cost of living crisis."
The Welsh government said provision of residential and nursing care beds was a local authority and health board matter.
"We also provided significant extra funding to support the care home sector through the Covid pandemic," it added.
"To help with current recruitment and retention of staff, we're investing £70m this year to ensure all social care workers continue to get paid at least the real living wage."