Welsh language data deemed misleading by statistician

Data suggesting the Welsh government is not too far away from its target of creating a million Welsh speakers has been described as "worthless".

Statistician Hywel Jones said the main reason data was misleading was because parents did not accurately account for children's Welsh language skills.

Latest Census data showed a decline in the percentage of Welsh speakers to 17.8% of the population.

But a government survey said the figure was 29.5% - or 900,600 Welsh speakers.

"The figures are so unbelievably high that they are worthless in my view," said Mr Jones, who has worked as a statistician for the Welsh Language Board and Welsh Language Commissioner.

"It would be better to know that a quarter of a million people speak Welsh and speak it often," he said.

"Other surveys suggest that between 10 and 12% of the population speak Welsh on a daily basis and that gives us a better idea of how many people can speak Welsh in some useful way, more than just saying 'bore da' [good morning]."

He disagreed with asking about children's language skills as part of the annual survey.

"The main reason the figures are so high is that parents incorrectly report that their children can speak Welsh based on a few lessons a week in an English-medium school," he said.

"Looking at the number of children in Welsh-medium education gives us a far more accurate picture."

He also said surveys should ask about people's ability to hold a conversation in Welsh.

The Welsh government data doubled the percentage of Welsh speakers in 10 local authority areas and increased it by about 10 percentage points in 10 others.

But Heledd Fychan, Plaid Cymru's spokesperson on the language, said she was concerned there was not a clear picture about the state of the language.

"If we are serious about creating a million speakers then we have to understand what the current figures are and how people use the language," said Ms Fychan, Member of the Senedd for South Wales Central.

"In Ireland, in their census, they ask various questions about people's use of the language and that helps in developing policies. That's what we need in Wales."

The Welsh government said: "This is the first time the census has shown a decline in the number of Welsh speakers whilst the annual population survey indicates an increase in the number of Welsh speakers.

"We have always been clear that we consider the census as the authoritative source of information on the number of Welsh speakers in Wales, and we continue to use it to monitor progress against the Cymraeg 2050 target.

"Government statisticians have been working closely with the Office for National Statistics over recent months to look at what can be done to better understand some of these differences."