Covid in Wales: Scientists advised post-Christmas lockdown

Scientists told Welsh ministers a two-week post-Christmas lockdown would have an impact in holding back Covid, but changed this advice two days later.

The Technical Advice Cell (TAC) - which looks at data and models how different restrictions would work - published one paper for ministers on 15 December.

They said lockdown measures for two weeks by 27 December would have "a material effect on reducing the peak".

But on 17 December, the TAC suggested only a four-week lockdown would work.

In the 15 December report, the TAC advised against "light touch mitigations" to try to tackle the spread of the coronavirus variant.

The Welsh cabinet met twice the following day, and announced 24 hours later that nightclubs would close after Christmas. 

Further measures, similar to alert level two, were eventually announced five days later.

These included restrictions in pubs, cinemas and theatres and a ban on spectators at sporting events.

But a second TAC report, dated December 17, suggested the differences between alert level two and alert level four, which entails full lockdown, were minimal if restrictions were in place for only two weeks.

If restrictions were in place for four weeks, then a full lockdown would have a greater impact.

The report stressed a two-week full lockdown could in fact have "negligible benefit and a high cost".

For a two-week period of restrictions, the modelling suggested a full lockdown would only delay the peak of infections, compared to level two restrictions.

Ministers have always insisted they "follow the science" when making decisions on lockdowns or other restrictions.

The 17 December report stressed that regardless of interventions from the government, "all scenarios estimate that peak cases will far exceed previous peaks, regardless of population protections implemented".

"There are a maximum 11,000 to 24,000 daily cases estimated (41,000 to 65,000 infections)," it added.

"This is highly likely to put pressure on the system in terms of high prevalence and sickness absence."

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: "Throughout the pandemic our approach has been informed by the latest available scientific and medical advice.

"The action we have taken in the run-up to Christmas, when the Delta variant was still the dominant variant, and immediately afterwards as Omicron cases increased, has been designed to keep us safe and protect us. We have introduced proportionate measures to protect people's lives and livelihoods.

"In responding to the pandemic, we have always tried to balance Covid and non-Covid harms in what can be a fast-moving and volatile situation. The latest scientific advice will continue to inform our response as we keep Wales safe."