Covid cases and hospital numbers rise in Wales

The number of people in hospital with confirmed Covid in Wales is at its highest level in nearly a month.

It comes as bed occupancy - the proportion of beds with patients in them compared to beds available - hit 90%, a high point during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, health board representatives warned we should expect the worst NHS Wales performance figures on Thursday.

The Welsh NHS Confederation said there were "huge levels of demand across the whole the system".

Director Darren Hughes said activity and performance figures were likely to be the worst on record due to the "enormous pressures the NHS and care sector are under, from all angles".

Hospital figures have become the key indicator in looking at the impact of Covid.

The number of patients with confirmed Covid has risen to a daily average of 498, 15% up on the week before, with Cardiff and Vale and Cwm Taf Morgannwg health boards having the most patients.

There was a slight daily drop on Tuesday but the average number of patients with confirmed Covid has risen to 498, according to Digital Health and Care Wales.

This is still about a third of what we saw at this point in the second wave.

Cardiff and Vale and Cwm Taf Morgannwg's hospitals have each got more than 100 of these patients.

Hywel Dda health board hospitals have the most Covid patients they have seen since February, an average of 80 a day.

When we include suspected Covid and those recovering from the virus, there were 707 Covid-related patients in hospital beds, 8.3% of all hospital patients.

Of these, 51 were in critical care or on invasive ventilation - a similar number to the past two weeks.

Covid admissions have risen to a daily average of 40, up from 35 the week before, that is 3.5% of all hospital admissions and about a third of the numbers we saw at the peak last winter.

The bed occupancy rate in acute hospitals in Wales has now hit 90% - the highest average for a week since April 2020.

It shows how busy hospitals are, all while trying to clear the backlog of waiting lists, as well as treating the 700 patients with Covid-related conditions.

In the past week, there were, on average, 5,743 patients in general and acute beds each day.

Mr Hughes added: "With winter pressures increasing, if it gets to the point where the NHS is unable to cope, action will need to be taken, which may include further restrictions being reintroduced."

The Welsh government said it was clear there is a "very challenging winter period" ahead.

A spokesman added: "We all have a role to play to reduce the risk of the virus spreading and ensuring our NHS is able to deal with the very high levels of demand over the coming winter months."

The Wales case rate has risen for a fourth successive day, to 617 cases per 100,000 people - up from 524.1 a week ago.

The highest level was 652 on 23 September, the last peak in the third wave. During the second wave, the case rate peaked in mid-December on 635.9 - but the age profile was very different and before the vaccination programme had reached many older and vulnerable people.

The daily average is 2,779 positive tests a day - up from 2,360 a week ago, an 18% rise.

There is still a high proportion of younger cases, with half under 30, 44% are under 19s and 32% are aged 10 to 19. 12% are under 10.

This has been a feature of the rising cases we have seen since September, swelled by record numbers of lateral flow testing for school pupils.

There are particularly big rises again in the Aneurin Bevan area, especially Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly and Newport.

Public Health Wales (PHW) expects to see some re-testing from the reported lab errors to start showing up from about now, but there has also been community infection.

Torfaen (878 cases per 100,000) is still the highest in Wales and the third highest in the UK on Tuesday.

Other areas in north and west Wales are showing more day-to-day fluctuations.

There are also more community hotspots appearing. When we look at case rates at a very local level, there are now 39 communities with case rates above 1,000 per 100,000.

These include Milford Haven in Pembrokeshire and 15 districts of Cardiff, especially in the north and west of the city.

There were13 deaths reported on Wednesday by PHW.

Twelve of these happened last weekend and one on 10 October. These included seven in the Hywel Dda health board area.

Because of the way deaths are reported, it is best to look back at the days when they occurred and take the average.

There were 47 deaths in the week up to 18 October - an average of seven a day.