Covid: Could Wales' lockdown begin lifting by Easter?

"Cautious" talks about Wales' tourist industry reopening in time for Easter have started, the first minister said.

But Mark Drakeford said the sector - which supports 10% of the Welsh workforce or 120,000 jobs - would not be opened "in one go".

Although he did not rule it out, Mr Drakeford also suggested it was unlikely pubs and restaurants would be open at the start of April.

He said a revised plan out of lockdown would be published "within days".

The Welsh Conservatives have called on the Welsh Government to "develop a plan for a best-case scenario".

Mr Drakeford said ministers were talking to the Welsh tourist industry, worth £6.3bn to the Welsh economy, "about what might be possible around the Easter period".

Wales' lockdown is set to be reviewed on 19 February and the first minister said it was all "very much caveated" and dependant on Covid infection rates and variants of the virus.

Mr Drakeford said if progress against Covid continued, the authorities could "slowly and cautiously" lift restrictions in the run-up to spring and Easter "in all aspects of our lives".

Currently, all indoor and outdoor events are cancelled and visitor attractions, non-essential shops, hospitality businesses and holiday accommodation are shut.

Three to seven-year-old children will be able to return to school in Wales from 22 February, along with some older children on vocational courses.

The potential phased reopening of schools for the remainder of primary age children and college students will be the priority at the next three-week Covid lockdown review - and Mr Drakeford said there would only be room for some other "modest" changes at most.

Asked whether the return of more pupils to face-to-face teaching would be his government's priority for the following review on 12 March, the first minister said "schools will remain our top priority" if there was "further headroom available to us".

"But, of course, there are other things we know that matter a great deal to people and if we were in a position safely to do anything else to lift the restrictions that is what we would do," Mr Drakeford added.

The first minister said he "absolutely" understood the need to give the tourism industry "some forward notice" if a partial reopening was allowed for the Easter break.

But he said: "Nobody should think that what we're talking about here is the wholesale reopening of the tourist industry in one go."

Asked if that meant it was unlikely pubs and restaurants would also be open at Easter, Mr Drakeford said: "I don't want to rule things out quite in that way.

"The way we'll have to do it will be step by step, using what headroom we have, never doing too many things that put us back in danger.

"It will not be safe to lift restrictions over too many things all at once. That means prioritising things."

The first minister said the Welsh Government's "cautious approach" would likely focus on the reopening of self-contained holiday accommodation in the first instance.

Mr Drakeford said anyone booking a holiday should do so "knowing the uncertain world that we are living in and that there are no guarantees".

The chair of the Wales Tourism Alliance called on the UK and Welsh governments to work together as "80% of our tourism market is across the border in England".

Andrew Campbell said there was an "awful lot of planning" needed before reopening as "you don't just turn a switch on".

"There's always been cautious optimism that we could get going again in April, but Easter would be simply wonderful," he told BBC Radio Wales

"If we go and open and England are still in lockdown that will cause problems - we need to have those discussions," Mr Campbell added.

Lynette Esposito, owner of the Elm Tree hotel in Llandudno, said she felt "optimistic" after the first minister's comments.

But she said coming out of lockdown for Welsh businesses should be "aligned with England" as that accounted for "the bulk of their business".

"I think in terms of a timeline it is critical we are being given sufficient time, for us to be able to get the place cleaned up and start trade," she said.

She added she thought it would be useful for hospitality staff to get "some advantage as to getting a vaccine" as they would be "frontline people reopening the economy".

Ms Esposito said they had been seeing a "substantial number of new inquiries" from people who had never visited Wales before.

"There is no doubt there is demand out there, but people are still cautious," she said.

Meanwhile, the Three Cliffs Holiday Park in the Gower has seen a surge in bookings after the first minister's "positive outlook for this summer".

"It's lovely to have so much enthusiasm," said owner Tom Beynon.

Well, a number of figures need to continue fall - namely average case rates, test positivity rates and Covid hospital patient numbers.

Wales currently has the lowest Covid-19 infection rate in the UK, with a seven-day average of 102 cases per 100,000 - a dramatic fall from before Christmas, where it had the highest in the UK with 603.

The number of hospital patients in Wales was at record levels at the start of January - now it is at its lowest daily average since 20 December.

Covid positivity rate in Wales now stands at 8.7% - its lowest point since 8 October.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended the proportion of positive tests should be no more than 5% before areas come out of restrictions.

The Welsh Government's Technical Advisory Cell (Tac) has issued a warning of the need for continued vigilance.

In its latest report it said if restrictions were lifted "too early or too quickly", there was a "high likelihood of returning to current levels of infections and hospitalisations in those scenarios".

It said the reproduction (R) number continues to be within the range of between 0.7 and 0.9 - it has been within this range for a few weeks and is down from the period just after Christmas when it was between 0.8 and 1.1.

It means for every 10 people with the virus in Wales about seven people would become infected.

Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Welsh Conservatives in the Senedd, called on the Welsh Government to "develop a plan for a best-case scenario".

He said: "As we hit these important vaccination milestones and with the latest review due at the end of next week, it's important ministers now devise a roadmap out of lockdown, providing timescales where possible and appropriate for schools, families, workers and businesses."

Wales' Health Minister Vaughan Gething said any easing would not happen quickly, adding: "What we don't want to do is have a rapid opening up and a rapid resurgence of the virus."

On Thursday, UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it was "too early" to know whether summer holidays could go ahead, prompting Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer to urge the UK Government to "get rid of the mixed messages".

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce a "gradual and phased" plan out of lockdown for England on 22 February.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said restrictions will remain for "at least" the rest of the month".