Covid-19 rules leave shops on a 'knife edge'

Welsh retailers are on "a knife edge" amid fears many will not survive a fall in Christmas trade, according to an industry body.

Stores such as Debenhams, Peacocks, Top Shop and Bonmarche are the latest to feel the financial strain of 2020.

Many non-essential shops had to close for months during lockdowns aimed at reducing Covid-19 rates.

A Welsh Government spokesman said it has provided the UK's most generous package of support for businesses.

He said it has been worth nearly £2bn since the start of the pandemic, including extensive business rate relief.

Twenty per cent of all retail sales usually come in November and December, said the Welsh Retail Consortium.

Businesses will be looking for good Christmas sales to help boost them after the losses felt this year, its head, Sara Jones, told BBC Wales.

"The festive period is absolutely critical for retailers... particularly in the current climate," she said.

"Signs are fairly positive that we're seeing footfall coming back onto our high streets in our town centres, but to say that's going any way to make up for the disaster of a year [for] retailers, certainly will be a long way off the mark.

"We had some hope in the pre-festive period that we should get some of that trade back, get people back into our shops able to take advantage of the fantastic offers.

"But, as it stands, we are looking at a concerning picture going into the new year."

Non-essential retailers had to close over two periods in 2020 and the prospect of another lockdown in 2021 has been raised as a possibility if cases rise after Christmas.

"Retailers are already at a knife edge. They're having to make some really difficult investment and decisions around what happens in the new year," Ms Jones warned.

The Arcadia group which includes Top Shop, Peacocks and Bonmarche have gone into administration, posing a challenge for Welsh high streets especially in smaller towns and cities.

Debenhams, with eight stores in Wales, has gone into liquidation and is expected to close its doors in the new year.

But it's not just the large chains that have felt the impact of the pandemic.

Jayne Rees has been running her toy shop in Llandeilo, Carmarthenshire, since 2002 but has only been trading online for the last three years.

She believes that has saved the business.

"We would be really struggling if we didn't have our online business. We've seen a three-fold increase in online sales," she said.

"We weren't expecting it, but it has saved the day, and has kept us going.

"We have missed our customers. A toy shop is a sad place when you've got no children in it, but we've survived so far."

Cardiff-based online retailer, Escentual, expects the rise in online trade to continue through the festive period as some customers avoid the shops.

"The biggest surprise this year was online actually overtook bricks and mortar for Black Friday, so that gives a really strong indication that Christmas should be really good for us this year," said Chelsey Edmunds, communications manager.

"We're expecting a huge drive on fragrance.

"We've seen more of a trend around classics and particularly home fragrance. It's going to be a really interesting year."

Sales of home fragrance had increased by over 265% as people increasingly stayed at home during the pandemic, the company said.

It also believes a drop in sales of lipstick but an increase in sales of mascara was down to people increasingly wearing masks.

But with vaccines now being rolled out, will this accelerated trend of more online shopping continue longer-term?

"I actually see online sticking because customers really appreciate the sort of ease - click, collect, done," she said.

Laura Tenison, who owns the mother and baby chain Jojo Maman Bebe, said the pandemic has meant businesses have had to adapt their services but that turning retail demand into a mail order business overnight was difficult.

"Retail in 2021 is a scary place to be," she said.

"I think some people will thrive but many will actually go to the wall and we're going to see a lot of empty shops."

The Welsh Government spokesman said it had "engaged significantly" with business and retail.

He added: "Our Ministerial Town Centre Action Group, which includes representation from the Welsh Retail Consortium and other business interests, supports the economic and social recovery of our town centres, and our Transforming Towns programme is providing more than £90m to help achieve this."