Covid: Swansea Bay cases could be 'catastrophic'

Coronavirus cases in the Swansea Bay area could soon reach "catastrophic levels" unless people follow social distancing rules, an expert has warned.

Swansea Bay health board director Dr Keith Reid said the local health system will be "overwhelmed" if cases continue to rise at the current rate.

The health board said 700 hospital staff were off sick while 800 new cases were reported in the last two days.

Dr Reid said this "perfect storm" was being driven by people mixing.

He also warned that care homes may be forced to close as they deal with a "significant number of cases".

His warning follows new figures from Swansea Bay University Health Board (SWUHB) which show Neath Port Talbot has the highest weekly Covid-19 case rate in Wales at 621.7 per 100,000 population, and Swansea has 445.8 cases per week per 100,000.

Dr Reid said: "Unless this community transmission drops significantly, we will be in a catastrophic situation by January because of big rises in cases of Covid and hospital admissions.

"We are at a critical stage. Infection rates are at record levels and we all need to play our part to bring this situation under control and quickly.

"If infections continue to rise at the current rate then without another lockdown before Christmas, the local system will be overwhelmed."

He has called on the public "to think about what you need to do rather than what you want to do" and "to do the right thing for Christmas which is to follow the social distancing rules and stay safe".

"The vaccine is coming but for most of us it's not here yet," he said. "We have a chance to stave off a potential catastrophe."

The health board said there were 1,674 new cases of coronavirus recorded between 25 November and 1 December - with 711 in Neath Port Talbot and 960 in Swansea.

David Howes, director of social services at Swansea council, said the rising infection levels within the community were "extremely worrying".

He said their workforce was "depleted, stretched and exhausted" and the council is "looking to reduced services in some areas, to make changes that no-one wants to make".

Dr Reid said a number of care homes in the area have been tackling a "significant number of cases" of coronavirus.

"If it gets worse in social care, we could see care homes having to close and the residents having to be displaced. It really is that bad."

He added that NHS staff were struggling to deal with increasing winter pressures, exacerbated by staff Covid-related sickness levels of nearly 700 in the Swansea Bay area.

This is creating "a perfect storm - with an increase in demand, increasing sickness in staff and running out of room to treat patients", he said.

Jamie Jenkins, former head of analysis at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), told BBC Radio Wales: "Things are looking pretty bleak at the moment with the number of cases and it only seems to be going one way."

He said the number of tests being carried out in Wales has risen by 54% in three weeks - not including the mass-testing in Merthyr Tydfil and the lower Cynon Valley - which has resulted in an increase in confirmed cases.

The number of Covid patients in hospital is similar to the numbers seen in mid-September, he added, which is placing increased demand on the health service.

"What's been driving the overall number of Covid patients in hospital has been those who've had the virus and overcome that and now they're in hospital recovering," he said.

"The longer you go into winter, if you have more and more patients going in, you're going to have more and more people recovering.

"That does put demand on the health service and affects other people who've got other illnesses."

The county has the highest case rate in Wales now - 621.7 cases per 100,000.

That is 891 cases in the last seven days.

Nine of its local areas are in the highest 20 places for localised case rates in Wales, with Aberdulais and Resolven the third highest in Wales on 1257.7 cases per 100,000 - 86 positive tests in the last week.

Neath Port Talbot also has a positivity rate of more than 25% - the second highest in Wales.

The leader of Neath Port Talbot council, councillor Rob Jones, said that "the majority of people are being sensible and stick to the rules by maintaining social distance" but he said "it only takes a minority to ignore the guidelines and lead to a spread in coronavirus".

He added that the modelling shows there could be a "big surge" in cases in mid January.

His neighbouring council leader at Swansea council, councillor Rob Stewart, has called on people to have "a safe, socially-distanced festive season".