Covid: Lockdown 'should continue for months' in Merthyr

Lockdown should continue in Merthyr Tydfil "for weeks, even months", according to a top doctor.

Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board consultant Dr Dai Samuel questioned whether current measures were working.

Earlier this week, Merthyr had the UK's highest weekly infection rate - but it has dropped in the past few days.

The Welsh Government said: "We are not returning to the network of local restrictions which was in place before the firebreak started."

Merthyr Tydfil has a rate of 639.9 cases for every 100,000 people over the past seven days, up until 3 November.

It is a fall in infection rates by 100 in a matter of days, but it still remains one of the worst rates in the UK, and nearly a third of people in the area who were tested returned positive results.

Earlier this week, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Blaenau Gwent were ninth and 10th respectively for infection rates in the UK.

Speaking on BBC Radio Cymru, consultant hepatologist Dr Samuel said: "Everyone's tired of the restrictions but it's hard to say we're going back to normal on Monday when the numbers are still rising.

"Traditionally, places like Merthyr and the valleys pull together in tough times, so I think we all now need to call on our friends and relatives to follow the rules - wear a mask, keep 2m distance and don't go to places that aren't essential.

"A solution might be more fines and asking people 'where did you get Covid?' because at the moment, it's not working."

At the Welsh Government's Friday press briefing, Health Minister Vaughan Gething said extending the firebreak in places such as Merthyr Tydfil, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Blaenau Gwent would be a "massive breach of trust".

He added: "It would have much greater consequences for people doing what we all should, in terms of changing the way we live our lives, and the trust people have in government.

"It is always the case, though, that if we see sustained localised increases we'll be prepared to take measures that are appropriate."

He said it would not be possible to see the impact of the firebreak lockdown until two tor three weeks after it ends.

Mr Gething also added that Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board was "at the centre" of "big pressures and pinch points" on the NHS.

However, in a joint statement, Merthyr Tydfil's MP and MS said the situation in the constituency remained "alarming enough so as to require further action".

"We believe that we need an even clearer view on the extent of the virus in the local population and testing needs to increase further," said Gerald Jones and Dawn Bowden.

"We must all still try to ensure that our behaviour helps to reduce the spread of the virus and save lives. We are currently discussing the situation with Welsh Government ministers, public health and local authority representatives."

Jamie Jenkins, an independent statistician and former head of health analysis at the Office for National Statistics, said data over the coming days would prove crucial in identifying whether the end of the lockdown would "light the fire again".

The growth in the rate of positive tests is beginning to stall in areas including Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taf.

"What we are starting to see for the first time is that the positivity rate is starting to come down in some areas," Mr Jenkins said.

"In recent days it has flattened. That's a positive sign, which suggests we are seeing a turning point in the rate of people coming back positive with Covid-19 in the community. We are seeing that in Wales overall, and in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taf.

"Whilst we are stalled, there is a considerable way to come back down."

Suzanne Edwards, who owns a florists on Brecon Road, Merthyr, said she thinks lockdown rules should continue.

"Two weeks hasn't been long enough and the numbers are still going up, so I don't know what the purpose of this two weeks has been.

"They're in and out of each other's homes, having little get-togethers and they just don't think it's going to happen to them."

Merthyr council leader Kevin O'Neill said people living in the county were "close emotionally and physically" which helped the spread of the virus.

"There's a band across the valleys, I think that's also to do with the geography, contained roadways, narrow valleys, lack of facilities, lack of places to go," Mr O'Neill added.

When asked if Merthyr should move out of lockdown with the rest of the country on Monday, he said: "I think there's a need to graduate some of the release of those regulations, but also the vast majority of the public have complied."

Lee Davies, councillor for the Gurnos, said it was "always going to be quite difficult in these communities".

"You are all condensed into one community, there's one shop, and one place that everyone goes to. People are living on top of each other."

Meanwhile, police confirmed that a number of people attended a bonfire on the Gurnos estate on Thursday evening.

South Wales Police officers attended to give “suitable advice” and remind them of Covid regulations.

Plaid Cymru has called for a Liverpool-style testing regime in areas hit hard by the virus.

Rhun ap Iorwerth, the party's health spokesman, said he was "not satisfied" with Mr Gething's explanation that the lockdown should be lifted in areas with high incidence and the numbers in places such as Merthyr Tydfil "ring alarm bells".

Andrew RT Davies, the Welsh Conservative's spokesman on health, said: "If Labour ministers were to apply their Covid logic and policy consistently, they would be reconsidering their decision to ease restrictions in high-incidence areas in counties such as Merthyr Tydfil, Blaenau Gwent and Rhondda Cynon Taf on Monday.

"Welsh Conservatives have called for targeted intervention in the hot-spot areas in Wales and we once again repeat that call today."

First Minister Mark Drakeford said on Monday he did not "intend to step away from" the bargain he made to return freedoms after the 17-day firebreak.

On Friday, a Welsh Government spokesman said: "To keep the virus under control, we need to think about our own lives and how we can keep our families safe and stop thinking about the maximum limit of rules and regulations.

"There will be a national set of measures, which will come into force on Monday."