Covid: Circuit breaker preparations under way in Wales

Ministers are "planning very seriously" for a circuit breaker lockdown for Wales, the first minister has said.

"We're very actively talking about and preparing for that should it be necessary," Mark Drakeford told Sky News.

The short-term measures could include closing pubs and restaurants.

However disease expert Dr Roland Salmon said such circuit breaker lockdowns were "doomed to failure" and would only bring "cost without benefit".

A circuit breaker is a short, set period of maybe two or three weeks, where tighter restrictions are brought in to break the trajectory of coronavirus cases rising.

The UK government's Scientific Advisory Committee (Sage) urged for the introduction of circuit breaker restrictions three weeks ago.

Mr Drakeford said: "We want to act now in order to prevent the worst from happening, to give us a better chance of getting through the rest of the autumn and the winter, and if a circuit breaker is the right way to do it then that is what we will do.

"I'm not announcing it today but I do want people to know we are planning very seriously, so if we do need to do it we'll be in a position to do it and in a position to do it quickly."

Mr Drakeford has already called on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to convene a Cobra meeting so that all four UK nations could discuss the measure.

Health Minister Vaughan Gething said earlier on Wednesday a decision would be made in the next few days on the issue in Wales

Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price said a circuit breaker lockdown was needed to provide time to get the test and trace system "in order" and prevent the NHS from being "overwhelmed".

He said there should also be a full reintroduction of the furlough scheme, financial help for businesses and support for people asked to self-isolate.

"Unless we take action, our NHS could be overwhelmed and unable to contend with a second wave which may well be worse than the first."

When asked about a circuit breaker on Wednesday morning, Mr Gething told BBC Breakfast the school half term - staring on 26 October - was a "potential way to introduce a break" if it was decided to do so.

However Dr Salmon, former director of communicable diseases at Public Health Wales, said it will not suppress the virus.

He said any short-term measures - lasting between two and three weeks - would not be long enough to prevent the spread of Covid-19 from households where people are infectious but do not show symptoms.

"I simply don't think a circuit breaker will work," he said.

"It won't work because even Sage (UK government Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies) in its consideration thought it would only delay matters, not suppress the virus altogether."

Whatever period was chosen for a circuit breaker, infectious people would still be released back into the community, he said.

The retired epidemiologist, who led the response to the E-coli outbreak in south Wales in 2005, believes governments should "rethink the whole model" and focus more on shielding the most vulnerable sections of the community, rather than placing restrictions on those considered to be at lower risk.

"We should be shielding older people, shielding at-risk occupations and for track and trace the priority should be on those places we know the virus is transmitted, like hospitals, care homes, meat factories, prisons or even universities," he said.

"We need a rational approach that's so far been lacking."

His view was echoed by Prof Dale Andrew Fisher, who specialises in infectious diseases at the National University Hospital, Singapore, and is part of the World Health Organisation's outbreak alert and response network.

He said circuit breakers were a short-term fix and were not "sustainable".

"It has to be just to buy time or to recover, but really this virus is going to be with us for a lot longer yet," he told Claire Summers on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast

"We don't expect to be vaccinating most of the world until 2022 so we have to learn to live with this virus and we have to be able to go to school, go to work, do our normal activities in a Covid-safe way, limiting the impact of social and economic needs."

He added: "You shouldn't need to do this if you can ramp up contact tracing, get all your contacts in quarantine, isolating all the positive cases.

"It needs to be part of a strategy, not 'lets do a circuit breaker, numbers are down, let's open up again'."

It is not clear if a circuit breaker would see schools close in Wales, as is happening in Northern Ireland from Monday.

Laura Doel, director of the National Association of Head Teachers, said any circuit break should be Wales-wide and not down to individual local authorities as confusion causes "more harm than good".

She said: "The concern for schools is always going to be what about the vulnerable pupils."

She said a circuit breaker would be "another issue" for parents but added: "On the flipside, this option would be a much needed break for teaching staff at this time."