GCSEs and A-level exams: Teacher estimates to be used for Welsh grades

A-level and GCSE students will be awarded the grades estimated for them by their teachers, the Welsh Government has announced.

Last week's A-level results were criticised after 42% of grades were lower than teacher assessments.

It came after they had been processed by an algorithm.

Students in England and Northern Ireland will also have their results based on teacher estimates, in decisions taken on Monday.

Pupils in Scotland had their exam results upgraded last week after an outcry.

Despite the U-turn, on Monday Wales' First Minister Mark Drakeford defended the original process.

Exams were cancelled across the UK after schools shut in March because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Last week's results in Wales were produced by a system known as standardisation - designed to ensure grades were "as fair as possible" and consistent with previous years.

But it was criticised by students and politicians for producing unfair grades for individual students.

The U-turn also affects AS-levels, skills challenge certificates and the Welsh Baccalaureate.

But students who received higher grades than those predicted by teachers will keep them.

GCSE results in Wales are due to be published on Thursday.

Emily Mundy, 18, from Anglesey, had faced losing her medical school place at either Manchester or Birmingham, after her chemistry exam was downgraded from A to B.

She said she felt "overwhelmed and excited" following the Welsh Government's U-turn.

"I got excited and I quickly rang Manchester University. They said I need to send the [teacher- assessed] grades to UCAS and I should be accepted," she said.

"I couldn't really believe it. It's felt like a long time since Thursday where I thought I was going to have to do something else. It means that I'll be able to get the career I wanted and the opportunity to help people."

David Mazoya, a 16-year-old GCSE student at Newport's Llanwern High School, was relieved: "It felt at first like we would be assessed on how other people had done in the past and our school average.

"It wasn't really our work, it wasn't really my grade either."

But Scott Gilmour, an A-level student at Llanfair Caereinion school in Welshpool, said he feels "nobody has a result that means anything".

He received two A*s and two As through the original algorithm method, and is going to Durham to study Law.

"This U-turn by the government strips the results we've had of any value and credibility. It now means the national average for A-level results this year will be way above previous years," he said.

In an interview with BBC Wales Mr Drakeford said the original process, was "fairer" than that used elsewhere in the UK, and was "more based on evidence".

But he said the decision to award estimated grades instead was taken because "we heard early in the day that things were moving elsewhere" in the United Kingdom.

"We were determined that we would have a level playing field where our young people were not disadvantaged," he said.

He said the system used to calculate results published last week "would have delivered the best A-level results ever [with] more young people going to university in Wales than ever before".

UK government education minister Gavin Williamson apologised on Monday for the "distress" caused by the exams process in England.

Asked if he would apologise to students, Mr Drakeford said he was "sorry for those young people who've had to live through such an uncertain period".

His comments echoed those of the Education Minister Kirsty Williams, a Liberal Democrat politician in the Labour-led Welsh Government.

Promising an independent review, she said "the balance of fairness now lies with awarding centre assessment grades to students, despite the strengths of the system in Wales".

The announcement followed calls for predicted grades to be honoured from Labour politicians in the Welsh Parliament, as well as Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.

Cardiff University vice-chancellor Colin Riordan said the move ends uncertainty and students "who have been in limbo" would get in if they got the grades they needed.

"If we make an offer to an applicant and they achieve the grades we asked for, we will give them a place," he said.

"The only issue is there are areas like medicine and dentistry where places are limited and it may be that if the numbers rise too much, we may have to ask people to see whether they'd like to accept an offer for the following year.

"But I think the applicants who have got the grades through this process now will get a place, for sure."

Universities Wales, which represents institutions in Wales, said: "Admissions approaches will inevitably vary by institution, however, learners can be assured that every effort will be made by universities to ensure that they are not disadvantaged by this year's processes." 

Exam watchdog Qualifications Wales, which oversaw the grade standardisation process that led to last week's results, said it was "working through the details and impacts of this announcement".

"We know that this is an extraordinarily difficult and upsetting time for learners, parents and their teachers, and there are many questions that we do not currently have answers to," it said in a statement.

Plaid Cymru education spokeswoman Sian Gwenllian said the announcement was "seriously overdue" and called for a "full investigation into this debacle".

"The Welsh Government should apologise to students, teachers and schools for what they've put them through over the past few weeks," she said.

Suzy Davies, education spokeswoman for Welsh Conservatives, welcomed the education minister's review.

"It is reassuring that the minister has listened to the Welsh Conservatives and other parties in the Welsh Parliament, but especially pleasing that she heard the voices of young people up and down the country," she added.

The momentum building against the A-level grading mechanism made this climbdown look inevitable even before it was announced.

So why did it take ministers so long to get there?

Kirsty Williams and other cabinet colleagues had nailed their colours to the "robustness" of the system in Wales - the implication being that it was more credible than other parts of Britain because actual exam results (the AS levels) were factored in here, unlike elsewhere.

But as the inboxes of members of the Senedd filled with tales of individual injustices against students who will have the vote for the first time in next year's Senedd elections, that position became unsustainable - especially with GCSE results looming fast.