Coronavirus: Universities' 'perfect storm' threatens future

Universities are facing a "perfect storm" which could lead to "real problems", a former university vice-chancellor and higher education consultant has said.

Sir Deian Hopkin said the number of international students will fall owing to coronavirus and Brexit.

Domestic students will also be reluctant to attend during the pandemic, he said.

Universities Wales said institutions have proved they can cope.

Surveys have suggested the number of international students taking up places in UK universities could drop by more than 50%, while other research claimed domestic enrolment could fall by 15%.

In Wales, such a reduction in international students could lead to a loss of about £60m in fees.

Universities Wales, which represents Welsh institutions, acknowledged that "these are challenging times for universities" but said they had proven their abilities to manage.

Sir Deian, who was vice-chancellor of London South Bank University for eight years, said: "The number of students coming from abroad is now likely to drop dramatically and yet universities depend on overseas students so much for their research and for supporting facilities.

"At the same time, there are some doubts that students in Britain may be reluctant to borrow £9,000 a year to have much of their courses online and none of the facilities which they would expect to find in university."

He said universities had been borrowing money in anticipation of growth, but new facilities might end up not being used.

The National Union of Students (NUS) echoed his worries, saying there were concerns the current situation would mean students "won't get the same student experience" with many classes being held online.

Due to current financial support during the pandemic and fees from the last academic year, the real "crisis" could hit next year, Sir Deian said.

But Becky Ricketts, NUS Wales president, said the pandemic also provided a chance to develop.

"It's an opportunity for higher education to really look at what we can do in 2020 and going forward, to make sure that students are accessing education in a way that suits them but also in a way that supports our institutions."

She encouraged prospective students to speak to universities as much as possible.

"If you haven't already, start that dialogue with your university, start that dialogue with your students' unions because they are all there to help you make the correct decision for you."

Research by the Institute For Fiscal Studies suggested Welsh universities could lose about £3,800 per student due to coronavirus - a lower sum than those in England (£4,700) and Scotland (£4,500).

But the research also says they are not in as strong a position to deal with the losses, with net assets of £11,000 per student. Scottish universities have average net assets of £20,100 while English ones have an average of £18,900.

Last month, however, data published by the admissions service Ucas showed record numbers of 18-year-olds in the UK had applied to study at UK universities.

What remains unclear is whether students will defer their applications, particularly if there is a second peak in the pandemic as has been warned of by the chief medical officer.

According to the Higher Education Statistics Authority, a university with a net cash inflow of less than 5% could face serious trouble as a result of the current climate.

Three Welsh institutions fall into this category - Aberystwyth University, Swansea University and the University of Wales Trinity Saint David.

The Welsh Government said it was "aware of the challenges" and providing £31m to support higher education.

"We're working with our universities to promote them at home and abroad and have published guidance to assist with the safe return of students in the autumn," a spokesperson said.