Coronavirus: Fewer weekly deaths suggest peak passed

There have now been a total of 1,852 deaths in Wales involving coronavirus, according to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.

But latest weekly figures suggest deaths may have passed their peak across all health board areas.

The Cardiff and Vale and Betsi Cadwaladr health boards had the most deaths registered in the last week.

The figures include a total of 507 deaths in care homes so far.

This included 76 care home deaths registered in the most recent week, down from 94 the week before.

The statistics cover the period up to 8 May, involving deaths registered up to 16 May.

Unlike the daily Public Health Wales figures, which involves deaths mostly in hospitals, the ONS figures include deaths when a doctor suspects Covid-19 is involved and also deaths in care homes and people's own homes.

They take longer to compile because they involve deaths being registered but they are regarded as being more accurate.

In Wales, there were 211 registered deaths in the week ending 8 May involving Covid-19, accounting for 30.5% of all deaths registered.

This is a smaller weekly total than the previous week, which was 281.

The number of excess deaths in Wales - above what we would normally expect to see - has also fallen.

Cardiff has had the largest number of Covid-19 deaths in Wales so far - 303, followed by Rhondda Cynon Taff (RCT) with 224 up to 8 May.

Across health board areas, Cardiff and Vale had 44 registered deaths in the latest week and there were 40 in Wales' largest health board, Betsi Cadwaladr (BCUHB) in north Wales.

But Dr Chris Stockport, of BCUHB, said on Monday the number of recent positive cases suggested it was nearing its peak.

Given its proximity to large conurbations in north west England - which has reported the largest number of weekly registered deaths - and the Midlands, concerns about the potential spread of the virus east to west across north Wales have been raised.

Local politicians have been warning too about the prospect of an influx of tourists as lockdown restrictions are eased across the border.

But RCT has the highest death rate - when different sizes of population are taken into account - 93.28 deaths per 100,000 people.

This ranks 32nd among 339 local authorities across England and Wales.

Merthyr Tydfil is next with a death rate of 91.39 per 100,000 (55 deaths so far).

It suggest Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board has now taken over from Aneurin Bevan as the hot-spot in Wales.

It comes as Welsh Government experts revealed that the rate at which coronavirus is reproducing in Wales "increased slightly" last week.

The so-called R-number in Wales was between 0.7 and 1 - up from between 0.7 and 0.9.

When we look at the picture in the different health board areas, we can see different patterns.

There was a lot about a "hot spot" in the Aneurin Bevan Health Board area early on in the pandemic but the number of deaths have seen a steady drop since this early peak.

Cwm Taf and Cardiff and Vale have both seen the number of deaths dropping compared to three or four weeks ago.

The number of deaths in Betsi Cadwaladr shows a much steadier pattern: a much smaller peak but a much slower rate of decline.

West and parts of mid wales in the Hywel Dda health board area see numbers of deaths at similar but lower levels for a longer period of time.

These figures seem to show a much longer tail to the curves in north and west Wales compared to those parts of south east Wales where a much bigger share of the population was exposed earlier to Covid-19.

The big question remains about potential impact on these less exposed areas as and when restrictions begin to be eased.

This is one of the reasons why Health Minister Vaughan Gething said the Welsh Government is looking closely at the trajectory in places like north Wales.