Rise in out-of-work Scots not seeking jobs

The number of Scots out of the labour market and not seeking jobs has increased, according to the latest official figures.

The rate was up to 22.9% for Scotland and down to 21% for the UK as a whole between February and April.

The Office for National Statistics also reported Scotland's employment rate dipped below the UK figure.

A total of 74.6% of adults in Scotland were in work - down by 1.8% on the previous quarter.

Across the whole of the UK, the figure was 76%.

The unemployment rate in Scotland stayed at 3.1%, which was below the UK rate of 3.8%.

Higher household costs have forced more people into seeking work, but there remains a high number (2.6 million) across the UK who cite long-term illness as the reason for being unavailable for work.

A total of 85,000 Scots were estimated to be seeking work between February and April.

Estimated average salaried pay has risen at a faster level in Scotland (8.4%) in the year to May, and by 7% across the UK as a whole.

But that has failed to keep pace with the increase in prices.

Two Scottish business owners will be looking at Tuesday's jobs figures with interest.

Fruit farmer Iain Brown is days away from his strawberry harvest when he needs about 100 fruit pickers at his farm in Pittenweem, Fife.

Hotelier and hospitality businessman Stephen Leckie is about to enter the busy summer tourist season with hundreds of unfilled vacancies.

For these two people-based industries, low unemployment rates are bad news.

Both have significant staffing issues, but are not on an equal playing field.

One of them has access to migrant workers, the other does not.

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Scotland's Wellbeing Economy Secretary Neil Gray said: "The continued near-record unemployment rates for those aged 16 and over across Scotland and for men aged 16 and over are welcome. However, the economic outlook remains challenging, particularly with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis."

He added: "The Scottish government is committed to supporting more people into work - including parents, disabled people and those with health and caring responsibilities - through employability and skills support, high-quality early learning and school age childcare provision, as well as improving access to flexible working.

"Additionally, our strong apprenticeship programme is allowing employers to invest in their workforce.

"However, with certain industries still facing recruitment challenges, an urgent rethink of UK government immigration policy is needed to enable increased access to the international labour and skills that Scotland needs for our economy and communities to flourish."

Secretary of State for Scotland, Alister Jack, said: "It's encouraging to see that the unemployment rate in Scotland remains near record lows and there's resilience in the labour market. Global issues are still causing significant economic challenges, however.

"The UK government is investing £3.5bn to remove barriers to work and remains committed to halving inflation, reducing debt and growing the economy, not least through investing more than £2.2bn in Scotland through our ambitious levelling up agenda and City and Growth Deals."

There are sound reasons why more people are in the jobs market in London and the south-east of England than in Scotland: housing costs are so much higher in the south that two incomes are more often needed to meet living costs.

The most recent figures show a sharp shift towards Scots being unavailable for work - or "economically inactive" - and that is going in the opposite direction to the UK - up to 22.9% for Scotland and down to 21% for the UK as a whole.

The numbers are influenced by the cost of living going up. Some early retirers, for instance, are going back to work because their budget plans are being stretched.

But they also appear to be influenced with upward pressure from long- and short-term illness. As they have gone up since the pandemic, there has been a longer-term decline in the number of Scots who are not seeking work because of family caring responsibilities.

Though failing to keep pace with price inflation, tax receipts indicate that pay in the year to May has risen faster in Scotland than other parts of the UK. Why? The ONS data doesn't tell us, but this may reflect the sectors in which Scotland has strengths, notably oil and gas.

Also, there is the impact of public sector pay deals. While lagging private sector pay growth, there have been different outcomes to pay claims and pay disputes north and south of the border.