Slight increase in Scotland's unemployment rate

Scotland's unemployment rate increased slightly in the last quarter, according to the latest figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the unemployment rate between February and April for those aged 16 and over was 4.2%, a 0.1% increase on the previous quarter.

This was below the UK-wide rate of 4.7% for over-16s.

The employment rate for those aged 16 to 64 in Scotland was 74.2%, a 0.1% drop on the previous quarter.

There were 2.657 million people aged 16 and over in employment between February and April this year, while 117,000 in that age range were unemployed.

Early estimates for May suggest there were 2.4 million payrolled employees in Scotland - 50,000 fewer than in February 2020, before the pandemic.

The jobs market is improving, for most, but these top-level figures tell us little about the churn beneath the surface.

Among the changes shown by the ONS figures is in pay. For Scots in the year to May, media monthly pay rose above £2,000 for the first time, up more than 10% on May last year, and by 7.4% on February 2020, the last pre-pandemic month.

That's a faster pace than the 15-month, 5.5% pay hike for the rest of the UK.

It sounds great news for workers looking to negotiate higher pay, and worrying for employers. And it has been noted that lower-paid workers have not been in this strong a pay negotiating position for 20 years.

But be careful how you interpret the numbers. Many of the people who lost jobs through the crisis were on lower pay. Without them, the median moves up.

Comparison with April and May of last year is also skewed by the sharp drop in pay as people moved on to furlough. Most took a 20% drop in pay, unless employers made up the difference.

And as many of those people have since moved off furlough and back into jobs, that further flatters the more recent pay increases.

The ONS reckons that, once you strip out such effects, pay is up by around 3% - ahead of price inflation, but with an expectation that inflation is also on the way up, and partly fuelled by a wage inflation spiral.

Employment Minister Richard Lochhead said the latest figures did not reflect the full impact of Covid-19.

He said the job retention scheme continued to help support jobs.

"It is crucial the UK government keep this scheme in place for as long as it is needed," he said.

"The Scottish government will continue to do everything we can to support employers and employees to recover and reopen at this time of exceptional disruption to our society, economy and labour market."

Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said: "There are encouraging elements to today's figures, but these are challenging times and we still have a lot to do to get people back into work and see our economy prosper again.

"The UK government has acted quickly and decisively since the beginning of the pandemic to protect livelihoods and keep businesses afloat in every part of the UK.

"Our furlough scheme - extended until the end of September - is continuing to support almost 270,000 Scottish jobs."

Meanwhile, industry body Oil and Gas UK revealed that the number of people working offshore had returned to levels not seen since the beginning of the national lockdown in March 2020.

It said the average daily numbers of workers on board installations for the week ending 13 June was 11,238 - 4,037 more than in April 2020.