School roll blunder expansion plan may still fall short

A £30m expansion of a high school needed because a council miscalculated the number of places needed for pupils might not create enough capacity.

Errors with its pupil forecasts for Dargavel Primary mean Renfrewshire Council has to extend Park Mains High School in Erskine to a 2,000 capacity.

But council projections show as many as 2,134 places could be needed by 2033.

Renfrewshire Council said it was monitoring pupil roll projection data to see if more capacity was needed.

Another consequence of the mistakes, which left Dargavel village in Bishopton short of up to 1,000 early years places, is that an extra primary school needs to be built.

BBC Scotland has seen project plans that suggest this will not open until the summer of 2027, but local parents say they were told by the council it would be ready by August, 2026.

Talks with landowners BAE are ongoing but a 8.5 acre site for the new facility has been identified.

Renfrewshire Council also wants a further 1.5 acres of land next to the existing Dargavel Primary to allow for any need to expand this school - which only opened last year.

Renfrewshire Council was branded "grossly incompetent" by an independent review after the school roll error.

The local authority's planned solution is to build a new £45m primary school, capable of accommodating 800 pupils, and a £30m expansion of Park Mains High School to house 400 extra pupils.

The council has agreed to cap numbers at Park Mains to 2,000 pupils.

But the latest modelling carried out for Renfrewshire Council showed that, in one scenario, pupil numbers could hit 2,134 by 2033.

A previous version of the same modelling produced earlier this year suggested demand at the high school could hit 2,372 in the same year.

These scenarios reflect the projected increase in families living in the local area, but are subject to ongoing adjustments with live data such as current school registrations and leavers.

A council report on the modelling suggests that in the future "there is potential to manage admission from 'non-feeder' schools" in order to ensure Park Mains' roll stays under 2,000.

The report also suggests there will be falling demand for high school places from other parts of the Park Mains catchment area but adds "there will remain a potential risk for the 2000 capacity at Park Mains to be insufficient over the much longer term".

Dargavel Primary opened last year with a capacity of 548 and has had to install six temporary classrooms this summer to cope with increased pupil numbers.

A spokesman for Dargavel Primary Parent Council said they were told by a council official last December that the new school would be ready by August, 2026.

The spokesman said that any delays would "further harm the education and future of our children", adding, "those who should know better are hiding behind political bureaucracy and excuses".

"They are continuing to disregard the views, suggestions and warnings being given by the community and have the attitude that they are the council and know better."

A Renfrewshire Council spokesperson said its capacity planning has involved detailed roll projections over the next decade across a range of scenarios.

They added: "More live data over the coming years and continual monitoring of roll projection data will enable us to build a more accurate picture and if increased secondary capacity is needed we will consider this as part of our wider learning estate management programme."

On the second primary school for Dargavel, they added "positive progress" was being made in finalising a preferred site and that the council has "always advised the indicative timescale to deliver the new school would be 36-42 months and this is dependent on having the site in our ownership, remediated and ready to support a build programme".