Scotland's prison population projected to hit record high

Scotland's prison population could hit an all-time high of 8,700 inmates, BBC Scotland News has learned.

The number of prisoners is rising after falling during the pandemic.

The previous high was 8,300 in 2019 but officials have predicted it could reach unprecedented levels next year.

The Scottish government has not confirmed or denied the projection and said it was trying to get the prison population down.

The rise is driven by increases in prisoners starting their sentences and increases in those being held on remand before trial.

Other factors contributing to the rise include more members of serious organised groups being caught and receiving long sentences and a rise in the number of individuals convicted of violent and sexual offences.

The chief inspector of prisons, Wendy Sinclair-Gieben, said she was aware of the 8,700 figure.

"I was shocked when I heard that," she said. "We seriously have to think about how we treat justice in Scotland if we incarcerate so many people.

"The system can't cope with the numbers where they are now.

"We'll see an increase in self-harm, we'll see an increase in violence and more to the point, we'll see an increase in recidivism."

Phil Fairlie of the Prison Officers' Association (Scotland) said: "8,700 is the highest prediction that's been put in our direction but we have heard 8,300 and 8,500.

"All of those numbers are deeply disappointing and extremely troubling.

"We don't have the prisons and we don't have the staff numbers to cope with anything like that."

In a statement, Justice Secretary Angela Constance MSP said: "Since the start of 2023, the prison population across the UK has been rising steadily, placing the prison systems under acute pressure due to a variety of reasons.

"Our modelling for the prison population in Scotland suggests it may reach even higher levels by the end of the year."

On Tuesday, Ms Constance told the Scottish Parliament that the prison population had increased by 9% this year to 7,937.

She said remand numbers had reached a historic high and there was a 19% increase in sentences of under four years.

"The success that we've had with the court backlog is adding to the prison population," she told MSPs.

"It was anticipated the remand population would fall as the sentenced population increased and that has not happened."

Ms Constance said the Scottish government had extended the presumption against short sentences from three to 12 months.

She would not confirm whether her officials had made the projection of an increase to 8700, telling BBC Scotland News: "I'm not in a position to give you a hard and fast number on the worst case scenario.

"But what I want to be absolutely clear about is that our prison population is rising and that is of great and serious concern. We will work harder than ever before to address this situation."

Bail supervision services have been established in almost every local authority area and the use of electronically monitored bail orders is increasing.

Scottish Conservative justice spokesman Russell Findlay said: "The rising prison population is largely due to Police Scotland's sterling work in catching sex offenders, violent criminals and those involved in organised crime.

"The SNP have abjectly failed to manage Scotland's justice system through a combination of incompetence and weakness. They cannot use scaremongering to free those who are locked up for punishment and society's protection."

Meanwhile, the population is creeping up at Perth prison, Scotland's oldest jail, which still uses halls built by French prisoners during the Napoleonic Wars.

The chief inspector of prisons said HMP Perth has 70 double prisoner cells which are so small they breach guidelines set by the Council of Europe Committee for the Prevention of Torture.

Ms Sinclair-Gieben said Perth Prison had "dynamic management and compassionate staff", but said they were working with "too many people in too small cells".

Perth governor Andy Hodge said the prison service was trying to spread the rising number of inmates across the prison estate

"We're taking prisoner numbers up consistently across sites," he said.

The Scottish government plans to publish its projections on the prison population in November.