Ministers spoil for a public scrap over Rwanda bill

It is another big day for the government's plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda.

I know what you are thinking: we have been here before.

Indeed we have. Just last week, I wrote that we had reached the day where the idea may well become law. It didn't.

But today, the government is leaning into the whole thing, spoiling for a public scrap and determined to win the day.

First thing, the government's Illegal Migration Operations Committee will gather.

Then, Rishi Sunak will hold a news conference in Downing Street. I'll be there, and there are plenty of questions.

We can expect Mr Sunak to say his teams in the Commons and Lords will dig in for a long slog today if needs be.

So we can expect the Commons to reject the latest Lords amendments this afternoon.

That will send the bill back to the Lords for another round of so-called ping-pong early this evening.

If peers amend it again, which some think is possible, it will head back again to the Commons, before returning to the Lords late tonight.

The question then will be what near-nocturnal appetite do peers have to have another go then? Do their numbers start diminishing?

But let's leap beyond this moment, just for a minute.

Let us allow ourselves to assume this bill does become law soon enough.

Then the really central questions become live.

How quickly will some asylum seekers be on planes to Rwanda?

How many will be sent?

And, crucially, does it act as a deterrent to people contemplating crossing the English Channel in small boats?

On these three questions, we don't yet have any answers.