Does the Autumn Statement hint at spring election?

There is an excitable industry of guesswork at Westminster right now.

If anyone finds themselves lost for words - a rare affliction around here, it must be said - the gap is instantly filled by asking "when do you reckon the election will be?"

What will follow, in considerable detail, are a range of perfectly lucid, plausible, thought through hypotheses assembled on a massive mountain of guesswork.

The Conservatives will want an election in May because spring is a better time for elections and it might catch Labour by surprise. The number of migrant small boat crossings will shoot up in the summer and they'll want the election done before then.

The Conservatives will want an election in the autumn because why wouldn't they make the most of their time in government and who knows what might turn up between now and then?

Both plausible hypotheses.

And now this festival of estimates is cranking up another notch.

After the Autumn Statement, with its promise to cut National Insurance for millions at the beginning of January, rather than by April as is standard after an autumn announcement, does that mean an election in May is more likely?

Maybe.

The Conservative Campaign Director Isaac Levido is expected back at Conservative Campaign Headquarters in the new year.

Labour have recently moved into a new HQ themselves and are upping their preparations, as are the other parties too.

All we know for definite is an election has to happen, by law, by the tail end of January 2025.

Precisely when it happens prior to then is in the prime minister's gift.

And so here is my advice on the off chance this parlour game so beloved here crops up in your day-to-day conversation.

Plenty of potential signs of when it might happen probably tell us nothing definitive whatsoever, other than providing evidence for whatever your hunch was in the first place.

What we can be pretty certain of is come January things will notch up.

The general election campaign year will be under way - the campaign has to begin next year, even if the election itself is held at the latest possible date of January 2025 - and all the parties will think, behave and prepare as though the election will be in the spring.

And they will continue to behave as such until it physically can't be in the spring, but in the summer… and ditto the autumn, and, yes, the winter.

And the only people who could know when polling day will be - the prime minister and a handful of his advisers - probably haven't decided definitively themselves yet, because they'll be driven by judgements a bit nearer the time.

And as for everyone else, me included?

We're guessing.

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