Public sector pay: Millions of workers await deal decision

The government is due to unveil this year's pay deal for 2.5 million public sector workers.

The awards cover one in four public servants, including teachers, nurses, doctors, police officers, and members of the armed forces.

Unions are pressing for pay to reflect the cost of living, as inflation rises at the fastest rate for 40 years.

But ministers have signalled awards will not match price rises, warning this would push inflation even higher.

It is expected pay rises will be around 5% for many staff. However, there could also be discrepancies, with lower paid staff getting more.

The current UK inflation rate is 9.1%, with the Bank of England predicting inflation could reach more than 11% later this year.

It raises the prospect of a wave of strikes later this year, with several unions already threatening industrial action if salaries fall behind.

Setting public sector pay for this year is one of the big outstanding decisions facing Boris Johnson before he is due to leave Downing Street in September.

On Tuesday, the government will publish its recommendations, covering around £100bn of public sector salaries.

The pay for dentists, non-medical profession NHS staff, prison officers, the judiciary and senior civil servants will also be covered by the announcement.

The government sets pay on a UK-wide level in some areas, such as for the armed forces.

In some areas the awards cover England and Wales, whilst in others - such as health and education - pay is set by ministers in the devolved administrations.

Unions representing NHS staff in Scotland are balloting members over a 5% offer from the Scottish government, with results expected next month.

The public sector union Unison has warned that a "staffing crisis" in the NHS will worsen unless staff get a bigger rise.

Its head of health, Sara Gorton, said: "The public understands an above-inflation pay increase is needed or fed-up health workers won't hang around.

"If the staffing exodus continues, waits for ambulances, operations and other treatments won't reduce."

Patrick Roach, general secretary of the NASUWT teachers' union, said: "If the government hopes that teachers' anger will dissipate over the course of the summer break, they are wrong.

"A pay award that is below inflation will be yet another pay cut for hardworking teachers."

Last month, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke told the BBC that "unrealistic expectations around pay" could "intensify this endless inflation problem".

All four remaining candidates to replace Boris Johnson as Tory leader and prime minister - Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch - have ruled out an across-the-board above-inflation pay rise for public sector workers.

On Tuesday, latest official figures showed regular pay for all workers is falling at the fastest rate since 2001, when inflation is taken into account.

Before taking account of inflation, average total pay growth for March to May 2022 was 7.2% in the private sector and 1.5 in the public sector.