Downing Street party: No 10 can't control what happens next

"Everyone agrees something has to be done, they'd just rather like someone else to do it."

That wasn't a joke from a former minister tonight, but a pretty accurate summary of the mood across the Tory Party.

That mood isn't just a barometer of political sentiment in the governing administration, but it's the critical factor in the prime minister's fate.

There is very deep and widespread concern among the group that has the power to trigger a mechanism to oust Boris Johnson from office if enough of them put their names to letters to call for a contest.

A number of them have already done so, but given the process is confidential it is impossible to tell how many have taken that step. Only one person, Sir Graham Brady, the head of the backbench committee the 1922, has the tally.

So forget anyone else purporting to be sure how many there really are. One cabinet minister told me confidently having done "my own sums" there can't be more than handful, pouring scorn on the notion that the number of official malcontents might have gone higher than a dozen.

But another member of the government suggested the threshold of 54 could in fact be reached "by accident" with many more than No 10 calculate having been handed in already.

But remember, no one really knows. And again, because it is a confidential process, Tory MPs are perfectly capable of telling each other (and of course journalists) that they have sent a letter when in fact they have done no such thing.

For Downing Street that uncertainty means they can't feel comfortable with the current state of unease. For members of the cabinet itself they also don't know, and can't be sure that the official report into what happened behind No 10's door in lockdown will spare Boris Johnson from blame.

Indeed, one of their number says there is a "significant delusion" at the top table right now in placing any faith that the party isn't angry enough to act, or Sue Gray's report will be vague enough not to put any new pressure on the prime minister personally.

And Monday's new broadside from Dominic Cummings shows again that Downing Street is not, and cannot be, in control of what's next.

It is worth noting that the man who was the chief adviser has made no secret of his desire to see Boris Johnson out of No 10. Mr Cummings might have been the chief adviser but he is now arguably, enemy number one for Downing Street.

But his latest blog which claims that the prime minister was warned by him about the 20 May 2020 event in the No 10 garden which is only part of the string of accusations, is a reminder to Downing Street that it is not in control of what happens next.

It is true that there is no consensus among Conservative MPs about the "something" that needs to be done. But it is also true that it won't be entirely down to Boris Johnson to define what that is.