Tory leadership: Are we expecting a new NI Secretary?

This time next week a new prime minister will be in place, but will a new Northern Ireland secretary follow?

In the past five years, four Conservative MPs have been given orders to pack their bags for Northern Ireland.

If the next prime minister sticks to convention, we can assume another new face will be welcomed to Hillsborough Castle.

Shailesh Vara, who is backing Rishi Sunak, was only appointed in July.

Mr Vara took on the position after Brandon Lewis resigned during the crisis that ended Boris Johnson's premiership.

Asked during a visit to County Down recently if was he worried about being replaced, Mr Vara shrugged off the suggestion, adding that he was "delighted" to be in Northern Ireland.

Some of his predecessors, though, may not always have agreed with that sentiment.

Karen Bradley, for example, faced a backlash after inadvertently admitting she didn't understand some deep-rooted NI issues when she first arrived.

She later faced calls to resign over remarks she made about legacy killings, while during Brandon Lewis's tenure he too was roundly criticised for pushing ahead with controversial plans to end investigations into Troubles-related killings.

But Mr Lewis's predecessor Julian Smith won praise for succeeding where two of his predecessors had failed, by securing the restoration of the political institutions at Stormont in January 2020 - only to be sacked weeks later.

He lasted just over six months in the role.

Theresa Villiers is the longest-serving female Northern Ireland secretary, having done the job for almost four years between 2012 and 2016.

Speaking to BBC News NI, she said it was important to "stress test" policies first and warned whoever comes next that "every interview, statement, speech" would be scrutinised for how it affected different communities.

"I sympathise with the sense of exasperation felt at the churn in ministerial appointments and the NI role in particular," she said.

"I certainly would have liked to see more stability in the post over the last few years, it does help to be able to build expertise and relationships with key people in London and Dublin, so I can see why there is this sense of exhaustion many people might feel at yet another new secretary of state.

"But I know whoever is appointed will take the job seriously."

NI-born political journalist Peter Cardwell was a former adviser to another secretary of state, the late James Brokenshire.

He described the job as a "poisoned chalice" and one that requires a special skillset.

"It doesn't have many levers of power, a lot of it is just about persuading people, building personal relationships - you need integrity and reliability and that hasn't always been the case with the secretary of state for Northern Ireland," he said.

"Some have over-promised and under-delivered, some have under-promised and then been forced to make major changes and the current political context of Stormont being suspended and the protocol bill going through means the new secretary of state will have a very tough job on their hands."

With all that said then, who would really want the job?

One MP whose chances are being talked up in Westminster circles just so happens to be Conor Burns, currently the junior minister in the Northern Ireland Office.

Sam McBride, Northern Ireland Editor at the Belfast Telegraph, gave his assessment of Mr Burns' credentials.

"He has some things going for him that others do not. He was born here (in Belfast), even though he wasn't raised here, he comes from a Catholic background and he's a unionist," he said.

"But on the other hand, he is somebody firmly associated with Boris Johnson, which doesn't endear him to unionists or nationalists and he's a Brexiteer, which puts him at odds with the majority of opinion in Northern Ireland."

He added that while the role has at times been viewed as a "dumping ground" for MPs desperate for a cabinet job, the issues in the in-tray these days mean it's not for the faint-hearted.

"This is a geopolitically significant role, it requires someone who is a skilled diplomat and someone who is able to factor this into the wider aspects of their government's policies.

"It is something that will require a big beast of Westminster, not some lowly functionary."

At the recent Tory leadership hustings in Holywood, local member Roger Lomas couldn't resist pressing contender Liz Truss about her potential pick if she wins, asking: "Are you just going to give us another fly-in, fly-out, absentee political landlord?"

Steering her answer carefully, Ms Truss insisted any appointee to her cabinet would be "based on how good they are at doing the job and whether they get things done".

Both she and Rishi Sunak have promised to prioritise Northern Ireland, if they win the keys to Number 10.

That pledge will face its first big test when we find out who's being sent here next.