NI100: No happy birthday as unionism loses another leader

Northern Ireland is 100 years old.

Political unionism should be celebrating, but for them it's anything but a happy birthday.

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one party leader is unfortunate, to lose two looks like carelessness.

But that is what the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Ulster Unionists have done.

The reasons for the demise of Arlene Foster and Steve Aiken are woven with the same thread.

Shifting demographics, uncertainty caused by Brexit, and a growing number of unionists who don't see these parties as sure-footed custodians of the union.

Add into the mix near panic over the looming assembly election and - boom!

Steve Aiken is the fifth man to try and steer the Ulster Unionist ship around since David Trimble resigned after another dismal election in 2005.

Or should that be submarine? It's been all too easy to make jokes about the fact one of Mr Aiken's previous jobs was commanding a sub.

Though in truth, as the commander of a creaking political party, he rarely seemed capable of getting his head above water either.

His undoubted intellect and command of economics never translated into popularity with the grassroots.

Internally, he was seen as slightly aloof and impervious to advice.

For many the final straw came in the form of a "car crash" interview with the BBC's Stephen Nolan at Easter.

He'd come on to explain his decision to call for the resignation of the Chief Constable Simon Byrne.

But over the course of an excruciating hour - though it seemed longer - he failed to do so with any conviction.

Perhaps the most damning indictment is the party's apparent inability to capitalise on the troubles of the DUP.

The largest party of unionism is in turmoil. It fears losing votes on one side to the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice), and on the other the Alliance party.

No-one at all is mentioning the possibility of it losing votes to the Ulster Unionists.

And if it can't make inroads now when can it?

No-one seems sure what the party stands for anymore.

On social issues it often appears quite liberal.

Doug Beattie, a possible replacement for Steve Aiken, proposed the recent assembly motion urging for gay conversion therapy to be banned.

But on other issues, for example the legacy of the Troubles, it appears more hardline.

However, there are still thousands of unionists who will never consider voting for either the DUP or Alliance and so the Ulster Unionist party will stumble on. It has no choice but to do so.

The party still has 10 assembly members. And a sizeable number of councillors. But it lost its two MPs at the 2017 Westminster election - it once had 11.

Soon the party will have another new leader.

He won't be a former submariner. And he won't need a periscope to see there are many obstacles ahead.