Arlene Foster: DUP revolt raises political stakes

Arlene Foster's leadership appears to be hanging by a thread.

The very fact her opponents within the party felt the time was right to ask MLAs to sign up and be counted is very telling.

It is a bold and unprecedented move within the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

But even with that process under way, the DUP leader was adamant there was nothing to see here, telling reporters on Tuesday these stories come up from "time to time".

She said she would deal with it and move on because she had bigger things to do, including fighting a pandemic.

Does dealing "with it" include facing down those within her party who want her out?

It all comes down to a numbers game as the party's elected representatives are invited to take sides.

Early indications suggest it may not end well for Mrs Foster.

The move to oust Mrs Foster in the middle of a pandemic will also raise the political stakes at a critical time.

The prospect of a DUP leadership contest at a time when the executive is trying to steer Northern Ireland out of lockdown will be challenging.

The prospect of an early election could also move closer.

The Northern Ireland Office has already started to scope out the potential fallout.

Might the DUP under a new leader harden its stance in the executive when it comes to working with Sinn Féin?

Might the party demand concessions on the Northern Ireland Protocol before appointing a first minister?

If the party fails to replace Mrs Foster as first minister seven days after her resignation, then the secretary of state will be forced to call an election.

Electing a new leader might settle the unrest within the DUP but it could also unsettle those outside who share power with the party.