Ulster Bank survey suggests fall in NI private sector activity

Economic output in NI's private sector continued to fall in February because of the coronavirus lockdown, according to an Ulster Bank survey.

It also indicated that prices rose at their fastest rate since 2008.

Each month it asks private sector firms about new orders, staffing and exports in what is considered a reliable indicator of economic performance.

Chief economist at Ulster Bank, Richard Ramsey, said the main trigger for recovery would be lifting restrictions.

"The one real positive in the latest survey is that Northern Ireland businesses are more optimistic about business activity in 12 months' time than they have been since the pandemic began," he added.

But the survey suggested conditions remain challenging.

Mr Ramsey said Northern Ireland was at the "bottom of the UK regional table as far as output, orders and employment were concerned".

"Meanwhile, it was ranked at the top when it comes to input costs and output price inflation," he said.

"Once again, shipping costs, raw materials and Brexit-related costs were cited as factors."

The survey indicated that manufacturing and construction firms raised their own prices at the sharpest rate in its history (almost 19 years).

Mr Ramsey said: "Looking to the months ahead, whilst conditions will remain challenging for some time, confidence will likely continue to build as the vaccine rollout continues.

"But the key trigger for a recovery in some sectors, particularly retail and services, is going to be when the current restrictions are lifted."