Coronavirus: New restrictions needed in NI if infection rate spikes, ministers told

Stormont ministers were advised more Covid-19 restrictions will be needed "around Christmas" if the number of cases spikes due to a relaxation of some measures, BBC News NI understands.

The advice from health officials was contained in a paper from the Executive Office, given to ministers on Thursday.

Ministers decided yesterday that most sectors can reopen next Friday.

But they were advised that doing so was "highly likely" to cause the rate of infection to rise above one.

The executive has previously indicated that its policy is to keep the so-called R-number - which measures the coronavirus infection rate - at or below one.

R represents how many extra people each infected person passes the virus onto: the goal is to keep it below one.

BBC News NI has seen the advice from Chief Medical Officer Dr Michael McBride and the Chief Scientific Adviser Prof Ian Young, which states that to have a "reasonable chance" of achieving that objective it would be necessary to keep hospitality and close contact services - or non-essential retail - shut after 11 December if some other sectors are to open.

The advisers said R would need to stay below 1.6 and preferably below 1.4 to ensure no further restrictions are needed before the end of December and that if R rises as high as 1.8 "additional restrictions will be required around Christmas".

They added: "If the primary objective is to suppress the epidemic then no relaxations should be permitted after 11 December and the current restrictions should be extended."

However Dr McBride and Prof Young have previously said they recognise the economic and societal impacts of lockdown restrictions and have stressed that any decisions can only be taken by ministers.

They recommended to ministers that "as a minimum" pubs that do not serve food should remain closed due to interactions between people likely to rise in the run-up to Christmas and with other sectors reopening.

Dr McBride and Prof Young also stated that whatever decision was reached they would keep the evolving situation under "close review "and advise the executive if it appears likely the capacity of the hospital system will be overrun at any stage.

If Stormont ministers were simply basing their decision on the rate of infection, they would have kept the lockdown restrictions in place beyond next Friday.

But they had to take into account the fact that people have had a bad year because of the pandemic and business desperately need some kind of redemption coming up to Christmas.

So it is no surprise that all of those factors went into the mix around the executive table and the ministers decided to end much of the lockdown next week.

While we might not be facing more restrictions before Christmas, there is no certainty about what will happen in the new year.

Many businesses have welcomed the decision by ministers to end much of the two-week lockdown next Friday.

On Thursday, Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill said the decision had the "endorsement" of the chief medical officer.

However, she said she recognised lifting restrictions came with a risk.

First Minister Arlene Foster said no further restrictions would be imposed "before Christmas", and that the executive wanted to ensure people could enjoy Christmas and come together in a safe way.

A Department of Health spokesperson said: "It is a long-standing convention that advisers advise and ministers decide.

"The chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser provide scientific and medical advice to the executive.

"It then makes decisions, taking into account wider considerations, including social and economic considerations.

"It is fully accepted that the social and economic impact of the pandemic will also have long-term consequences for the mental and physical wellbeing of citizens."

Meanwhile, confirmation of the relaxations has been published by the Executive Office.

In a statement published on Friday, the first and deputy first ministers confirmed driving instructors would also be permitted to resume working.

An limit of 500 spectators at an outdoor sporting event will be permitted.

Outdoor events and gatherings, subject to a risk assessment if more than 15 attending and measures in place to limit risk of virus transmission with an upper limit of 500 on participants.

Inter-school competitive sporting events are not permitted.