Coronavirus: Covid spike warning if schools and pubs stay open

Stormont's leaders have been warned Covid-19 infection rates will keep rising if both schools and the hospitality sector remain open, BBC News NI has learned.

They have also been told expanding tighter measures currently in place in the Derry City and Strabane council area across NI will be "insufficient".

The warnings are contained in a paper from Health Minister Robin Swann.

A long-delayed executive meeting began at about 21:30 BST but was adjourned.

It is understood the delay was down to a disagreement between the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin, who lead NI's power-sharing executive, about the duration and extent of possible school closures.

However, the executive was adjourned until 23:00 at the request of the SDLP, to allow smaller parties more time to read the proposals, as they only received them a short time before the meeting began.

The DUP argues it is critical schools remain open, but Sinn Féin has said medical advice points to the need for wider action to be taken.

BBC News NI also understands that proposals to impose four weeks of restrictions across NI are on the agenda for the meeting.

Stormont parties had been told to be on standby for a potential recall of the assembly, if decisions were taken late on Tuesday evening, but assembly members have since been sent home.

It comes as seven more coronavirus-related deaths have been recorded by the Department of Health in Northern Ireland since Monday.

Four deaths happened in the past 24 hours, with three other occurring earlier but only now being reported in the department's total, which stands at 598.

Another 863 cases of the virus have also been reported by the department, bringing Northern Ireland's total to 21,898 - more than a quarter of which have been recorded in the past seven days.

In the Republic of Ireland, three additional deaths were reported, bringing the country's total to 1,830.

The Irish department of health said there have been 44,159 cases of the virus after a further 811 were added on Tuesday.

The official document seen by BBC News NI states that, based on the latest scientific advice, "a package of significant interventions... will be required to prevent a further exponential rise in the virus".

"Single wider interventions are unlikely to be sufficient," it adds.

There will only be a reduction in Covid-19 cases and people being admitted to hospital for treatment if the reproduction rate (R-number) is below one, the document adds.

The R-number represents the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a single infected person.

In Northern Ireland, it is currently estimated to be at about 1.5.

"The decrease in the epidemic will be greater the further R is below one and the longer that is maintained," says the paper.

"The peak number of hospitalisations will be reduced, provided that an intervention to reduce R to under 1 is made early this week."

Delaying the introduction of restrictions by another week could result in an extra 100 inpatients in NI's hospitals, officials are understood to have warned.

Going back to full lockdown, but keeping schools open, would reduce the R-number to a "little less than 1", says the document, citing modelling from a range of UK groups.

A full lockdown with schools closed and the hospitality sector remaining open would result in an R-number possibly a little higher or lower than one, it adds.

"It is not considered likely that R can be less than one with both schools and hospitality open," says the document.

There is clear evidence recent measures, such as household restrictions, have had some impact on reducing the rate of transmission, it adds.

But it warns about the "counter effects" of executive decisions to open higher and further education colleges and drink-only pubs.

It is understood the health department wants any new measures in force by this Friday at the latest, but the executive will have the final say on any decisions.

Another 863 cases of the virus have been reported by the department, bringing Northern Ireland's total to 21,898 - more than a quarter of which have been recorded in the past seven days.

According to departmental data, there are 150 Covid inpatients in NI's hospitals and 23 patients in intensive care, 15 of whom are being ventilated.

In the Derry City and Strabane council area, the UK's worst-hit area, the Covid infection rate is 969 per 100,000 of the population in the past week.

Belfast has the eighth-highest rate of infection in the UK, with 432 cases per 100,000 people in the week ending 9 October, according to figures just released from the BBC Data unit.

Find out how the pandemic has affected your area and how it compares with the national average (last updated 9 Oct):

If you can't see the look-up click here.

Tighter restrictions have been in force there since 5 October, but the Western Trust said hospital admissions were doubling every three to four days.

Stormont health officials have expressed alarm at the situation, saying that if wider actions are not implemented by Friday, there will be serious implications for the health service.

The DUP has called for more evidence to be produced to support the proposals advocating NI-wide restrictions.

On Monday, the party's Westminster leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said he preferred using localised measures in hotspot areas, as opposed to wider measures across Northern Ireland.

There is speculation that schools could be given an extended half-term break, but Education Minister Peter Weir has said he wants schools to remain open.

He said this was so pupils are not put at a disadvantage to students in Great Britain or the Republic of Ireland, where longer closures have not been announced.

On Monday, Mr Swann, of the Ulster Unionist Party, said decisive action needed to be taken by the executive immediately, echoing a sentiment from Sinn Féin's Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill, who also called for more financial assistance to "support workers, families and business in these challenging times".

Alliance and the SDLP have also spoken in favour of wider restrictions to tackle the spiralling number of cases, but have urged Westminster to provide further "financial firepower" to Stormont.

The range of views within the executive means that reaching a decision on further restrictions will be challenging.

It's emerged that the first minister of Wales has written to Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill asking them to regulate travel within the UK due to the pandemic.

Mark Drakeford had already asked Prime Minister Boris Johnson to impose a travel ban in and out of Covid hotspots in England, but that was rejected by Number 10, who said there were "no physical borders between Wales and England".

In his letter, seen by BBC News NI, Mr Drakeford said he wanted travel across the UK to be regulated in a similar way.

There are already local travel restrictions in place in parts of Wales.

Mr Drakeford said the impact of these restrictions "is undermined by travellers from higher prevalence areas in other parts of the UK being able to travel into Wales, potentially bringing the virus with them".

BBC News NI has approached the Executive Office for a response to Mr Drakeford's letter.