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NI business activity drops at sharpest rate since 2012

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The Ulster Bank report is considered a reliable indicator of economic performance

Business activity in NI's private sector fell at its sharpest rate in seven years last month, according to a survey by Ulster Bank.

It asks businesses about things like orders, exports and staffing in what is considered a reliable indicator of economic performance.

Last month, NI companies reported the sharpest decline in new orders since May 2012.

Brexit uncertainty was the main reason for the fall, according to the report.

Respondents said there was a wariness among customers to commit to new projects.

All four sectors reported a fall in output but retail and construction were the hardest hit, said the report:

  • Orders in construction fell at the sharpest rate in 7.5 years
  • Retailers saw orders fall at the fastest rate since 2009
  • Employment also decreased but only slightly

"In this environment, firms' desire to maintain staffing levels comes at a cost to profit levels," said Ulster Bank chief economist Richard Ramsey.

Growth in NI economy is predicted to fall over next two years, according to experts
Construction and retail were among the sectors hardest hit

"Firms therefore seem willing to take a hit to their profits in the short-term in the hope that conditions will improve once there is greater certainty around the situation with Brexit."

Mr Ramsey warned this could prove to be overly-optimistic.

"Even if a Brexit deal is passed, there is still much to be decided around the new relationship with the EU and how any new arrangements would work," he said.