Selby and Ainsty by-election: All about the constituency

With less than a week to go until voters in the Selby and Ainsty constituency go to the polls in a by-election, BBC News looks at some of the factors which could mean the ballot makes national news.

We've been used to throwing around the phrase 'red wall' for the last five years or so, so let me try and coin a new one for you.

If the election of Conservatives to traditionally Labour seats was the cracking of the red wall perhaps Labour winning unexpectedly in North Yorkshire could be the start of the 'blue rinse'?

Vast tracts of the county are traditionally pretty blue.

North Yorkshire has some of the safest Conservative seats in the country.

Some of those seats have never belonged to another party. They are traditional heartlands that only vote one way.

Towns and villages that you would never believe would ever change colour.

The worry for the Conservatives would be that we said that about places like Rotherham and Doncaster before 2019's election.

It's certainly a stretch to think that Labour could overturn the Conservatives' 20,000 vote majority from that vote.

It would be the biggest turnaround in their history.

But they are quietly confident and chucking a lot at the campaign.

I've never seen so many MPs in one place (apart from Westminster obviously) as when Sir Keir Starmer came to Selby the other week.

Activists told to stand around and hold banners always looks a bit staged, but the number of Yorkshire Labour MPs there was notable.

I guess it's best that you turn up if your boss is just down the road.

The Conservatives are not complacent though.

Their visits have not been as high profile - but they have had them.

The big speculation was whether Prime Minister and Richmond MP Rishi Sunak would visit given he only lives an hour away.

He did on a Saturday morning for a quick walk around and interview.

But the fact that we've been asking how many times Sir Keir might come here compared to wondering whether Mr Sunak would come here at all tells a story.

What you extrapolate from that story might depend on which rosette you wear.

One of the things you'll hear a lot in the next few days is that this constituency has always been Conservative.

It's an impressive fact that is slightly undercut by the fact that this constituency has only existed since 2010.

Before then Selby was a different patch dominated by the town and the mining industry surrounding it.

John Grogan was Labour MP between 1997 and 2010.

In fact, those looking at the (Yorkshire) tea leaves hoping for signs of what this by election may tell us about a general election listen up; the last two times Selby has changed its political colour so has the country.

Labour for 13 years then Conservative for the next 13 might make it sound like a very even battle but remember these were different constituencies with different majorities.

While Nigel Adams enjoyed leads that topped out at the current 20,000, Labour were left defending Selby in 2010 with a difference of just 467 ballot papers in their favour.

Despite the rural northern part of the patch, the legacy of coal mining runs through the constituency.

It might feel like closure of pits is something that happened in grainy 80s and 90s archive footage but the Selby coalfield closed in 2004 with Kellingley - the country's last deep coal mine - shutting shop in 2015.

Just eight years ago 800 miners lost their jobs at Big K.

The muck heaps there are now slowly being turned into industrial units and distribution centres but the closure has contributed to lasting imbalances between those places that used to mine and those that did not.

The 2019 State of the Coalfields Report compiled by Sheffield Hallam University found that in former mining areas average earnings for men were eight percent below the national average.

For women it's 10% below.

Life expectancy is a full year lower here than the national average. It's two years lower than those living in London.

No-one knew this election was coming.

The Conservatives were busy selecting their candidate here for the next general election as Boris Johnson pressed send on his resignation tweet.

We knew Nigel Adams wasn't going to stand again next year but his party was seemingly given no notice that he was about to disappear "with immediate effect".

Every party had to select a candidate quickly - with the printers going overtime for their leaflets.

At a normal general election Selby and Ainsty might go a little unnoticed - votes counted quietly and quickly.

But the speed with which this has happened and the reasons why we're all here brings a huge national focus.

As well as the by-election tradition of lots (and lots) of candidates from across the political spectrum (who you can find a list of here) it also means lots of journalists will be visiting Selby and Tadcaster for the first time (enjoy it - it's lovely) - and trying to work out what the result means for next year's vote.

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