General election: Can Labour win seats in rural eastern England?

With the conference season in full swing, political parties are looking how to win the rural vote.

With the Conservatives winning the "red wall" Labour seats four years ago, could Labour win the "blue hedge" Tory seats?

BBC Politics East talked to the Country Land & Business Association (CLA) and talked to people in the village of Foxton, near Cambridge.

Cath Crowther, of the CLA, said parties needed to commit to the rural economy.

CLA polling of more than 1,000 people in England's 100 most rural constituencies revealed a 18% fall in Tory support and a Labour surge of 16%, putting the Conservatives (41%) and Labour (36%) almost neck-and-neck for the next general election, which is due by January 2025 at the latest.

Despite the historic bond between the Conservatives and rural England, only 36% of those polled agreed that the party "understand and respect rural communities and the rural way of life", although Labour scored worse in answer to that question at 31%.

"We've definitely seen a switch in the countryside. I think in recent memory no political party has really had true ambitions for the rural economy and rural communities," said Ms Crowther.

"We know from the last two years that if groups feel disenfranchised they will change their political allegiances and our members - farmers and rural businesses - have got frustrated that policies (such as planning laws rejecting small housing developments) are holding them back."

A litmus test could be in the Mid Bedfordshire seat where a by-election takes place on Thursday, 19 October after sitting Tory MP Nadine Dorries stepped down.

Foxton is in the South Cambridgeshire constituency - regarded as Conservative heartland and won by the party's Anthony Browne in 2019 as part of Boris Johnson's landslide.

Mr Browne polled 31,015 votes giving him a 2,904 majority over the Lib Dem candidate Ian Sollom who came second with 28,111 votes. Labour trailed in third with 7,803 votes for Dan Greef.

Foxton farmer Tom Mead said there was "low" confidence in the present government.

"We've had so long listening to the current government about 'this is going to happen' or 'that is going to happen' and it doesn't happen," he said.

"People are looking to shake things up. We've had years of a Conservative government and maybe a change is as good as a rest."

Bev Wesley, landlady of the White House pub, said: "People are so fed up with what we have got at the moment with rising costs and everything. People need a change now.

"The younger generation want something different. They want to be able to live rather than just survive.

"For instance nobody can afford a house in our village. We need a change. Is any party going to be any better? We don't know, but we'll never know if we don't see change."

Businessman Greg Butler said people in Foxton who want to protest at the government are more likely to vote Liberal Democrat.

Mr Butler, who has a business selling 78rpm records and has a collection of more than 140,000 discs, said: "People in the country areas tend to be conservative with a small 'c'.

"In terms of making a change here, I don't think Labour are in with a shout."

Northamptonshire was solidly blue in 2019, voting for Tories in all seven of the county's seats, with no joy for Labour in the more urban seats it has won in the past, such as Corby, Northampton South and Northampton North.

Peter Bone MP retained his Wellingborough seat with an 18,540 majority in 2019, and disputed the idea that rural voters were turning to Labour.

"Over the weekend I've been knocking on doors in some local villages and what they say to me is 'we're not going to vote Labour; we are not convinced by them' and they are not impressed by the Lib Dems.

"But they also say 'you lot [the Conservatives] have got to pull your socks up; you've got to show a vision'," he said.

"I talk to people in their homes and it's clear to say we are out of favour at the moment, but we haven't lost those voters."

BBC Politics East was broadcast on Sunday, 1 October on BBC One and is available on the BBC iPlayer.

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