After the hype plant-based proteins face leaner times

London's Vegfest this year was notably smaller and more subdued than in previous years, when queues would snake around the venue.

It's still the UK's largest indoor vegan event and this year's was the first one since the Covid-19 pandemic started.

The rising price of food was one frequent topic of conversation. Like many parts of the world, grocery price inflation in the UK is very high, at 14.7% as of the end of October 2022.

In response, a back-to-basics movement is underway among UK vegans. They're cooking more pulses and grains, buying in bulk, and relying less on the exotic processed products that have proliferated on supermarket shelves in the past few years.

"The cost-of-living crisis in the UK has a big impact on food purchasing decisions," explains Louisianna Waring, the senior insight and policy officer for the Vegan Society.

So, if vegans are thinking more carefully about how they spend money, where does this leave companies with innovative plant-based proteins?

For a while in 2019 and 2020 it seemed like every month brought a plant-based meat, dairy or even fish alternative. The newcomers were trying to appeal to vegans and to non-vegans who were looking to cut down on animal protein.

But the evidence suggests that interest in the new foodstuffs has declined. Market research firm IRI has found that sales of plant-based meat products fell sharply in the US earlier this year.

The industry is partly the victim of its own success says Tom Rees, an industry manager at the market research firm Euromonitor.

He argues that as meat alternatives proliferated in the US during the pandemic, many people tried the lower-quality products and had bad experiences.

So while wanting a healthier lifestyle might bring the veg-curious to vegan shelves, taste is often what drives them away, Mr Rees says.

Beyond Meat, was one of the brightest starts of the alternative meat sector. But in its most recent quarter it recorded a loss of almost $15m (£12.4m), and a 23% decline in sales compared with the same period in the previous year.

Beyond Meat's share price collapsed to a low of $11.56 in November 2022, a 95% fall from its record high of almost $240 in July 2019.

It expects further losses, and is aiming to recover by lowering prices.

But although these figures are concerning, we shouldn't place too much emphasis on them, cautions Friederike Grosse-Holz, a plant scientist who is currently a scientific director at Blue Horizon, an investment firm focused on sustainable food.

"Some people might have hyped this [sector] more than made sense from a business perspective," she acknowledges.

But she says what we're seeing now isn't a catastrophic decline for plant-based foods, but what she calls a "return to normal".

"I think it is really coming from a hype to a healthy growth trajectory, rather than a hype to death," she says.

Ms Waring agrees. "In the last few years we have seen some vegan product categories in the UK see double, and even triple-digit, growth," she notes. "This huge boom was always likely to lead to a slight decline in sales where the market stabilises, innovates, and then increases again."

Another reason for caution in interpreting the data is that sales of meat are down as well. A September 2022 survey of UK adults by the consultancy Public First found that 28% were buying less meat in response to the soaring cost of living.

Despite the downturn in meat alternatives in the US, plant-based dairy sales remain high. Yet in this sector as well, consumers are increasingly scrutinising health claims. Many people no longer automatically assume that vegan equals nutritious.

More technology of business:

In one bright spot for alternative proteins, Ms Grosse-Holz believes that they are well positioned for resilience amid ongoing supply chain issues. They often have shorter supply chains than animal agriculture, as they don't need to rely on the animal feed step.

They're not completely insulated from world events, of course. For German manufacturers of alternative meats, certain key ingredients remain in short supply following the Russian invasion in Ukraine.

Retailers are also feeling the pinch, in the face of high energy prices and inflation. The Vegan Kind, the UK's biggest online supermarket dedicated to plant-based products, announced in November that it was ceasing operations, citing the challenging economic climate.

Overall, however, plant-based producers are heavily pushing to scale up production and drive down costs, in response to consumer demand.

Developing technologies are helping with that. For instance, producers of plant-based chicken have often used pea protein isolate, for its ease in extrusion - essentially, forcing ingredients through a small opening.

But improvements in extrusion technology mean that more companies are now able to use pea flour instead, which results in cost savings. It also translates into a food label that many consumers find more relatable.

"There is a bunch of magic happening on the product formulation side," Ms Grosse-Holz says.

But, as she emphasises, communication remains key: "It doesn't help anyone if you have the greatest technological solution to the problem, if people are not going to buy it."