Flu cases show sharp rise as waiting times worsen

Flu cases have risen to medium intensity levels, with health officials warning that the peak is still some weeks away.

The latest figures for Wales - from cases recorded by GPs and by those tested in hospital - have jumped in the past week.

Flu has started earlier this year, with three times as many hospital inpatients with the virus than the same point in 2023.

Meanwhile, monthly waiting times show numbers waiting for hospital treatment hit record levels again.

Longest waits - a key Welsh government target - also increased, but the boss of NHS Wales said she was confident two-year waits could be cut by two thirds by the end of March 2025.

There were more than 650 cases recorded in the community with the peak of the flu season yet to arrive.

The rate is so far following a similar pattern to the flu season in 2022-23.

About 1,400 hospital patients are tested weekly for a range of acute respiratory infections (ARI) and last weekend about 21% were positive for flu - up from 7% a month ago.

Judith Paget, NHS Wales chief executive, said hospitals were very busy and occupancy was high.

"We're doing a huge amount of work to ensure we're keeping the flow of patients moving from the front door and clearly a huge focus on supporting people to get discharged from hospital when they're ready to leave," she said.

There were 778 inpatients with ARI last weekend - double the number of a month ago. More than half of patients with flu had caught it while in hospital.

The winter viruses are running ahead of this time last year.

It comes as flu vaccination rates show a lower take-up among at-risk groups under 65 and NHS workers than in 2023.

Ms Paget said: "We would really encourage people who've had the offer of a flu vaccine to really think about taking it up, especially those with clincal vulnerabilities. It's never too late."

Figures also show cases of norovirus, mostly in the elderly, are increasing too and over the last three months are up by two thirds on the same period in 2023.

Meanwhile, waiting lists rose for a ninth month in a row to hit record levels again.

The number of patient pathways in October was 802,122, up by 825.

Because some patients are on more than one waiting list, the number of individual patients waiting is estimated to be 620,311 - this is also a record.

The Welsh government has pledged to tackle the longest waits, but those waiting both a year and two years increased over the month.

There were still 24,177 patient pathways for consultant-led specialisms waiting more than two years, while they have been virtually eliminated in England.

The target is that by the end of March 2025 - figures we won't see until May - that two-year waits will be cut to 8,000.

The NHS Wales chief said there was a "clearly crafted plan" and "a strong sense of urgency and importance".

"We've a range of options - some include staff working extra hours, doing extra sessions, working weekends, for which we're hugely grateful, some is outsourced to the private sector," said Ms Paget.

More than 40% of these longest waits are in north Wales, while a quarter of the two-year waits are for ophthalmology treatment.

There was also a rise of 3,500 in one-year waits over the month.

Health Secretary Jeremy Miles said: "Overall, two-year waits for treatment are now almost two-thirds lower than at their peak during the pandemic.

"We expect to see these fall markedly over the coming months as we start to see the impact of the additional £50m to reduce long waiting times."

Other figures showed:

• Ambulance performance worsened, with 47.6% of life-threatening "red calls" arriving within the eight-minute target window. The target has not been met for 52 months. However, the service dealt with a second highest number of red calls on record.
• There were 20,745 "lost" hours by ambulances having to wait outside A&E to handover patients; this was slightly better than the previous month.
• A&E performance also deteriorated, with 67.6% of patients seen within the four-hour target time. The performance for major emergency units was similar to England's.
• There were 1,473 patients fit to be discharged but delayed in a hospital bed because assessment or the right social care support was not ready. This is the lowest number since the figures were first published last year.
• Numbers waiting a year or more for a first outpatient appointment continued to rise, to 81,470 - the highest for nearly two years.
• There was an improvement in cancer performance, with 58% of people suspected of having cancer starting treatment within 62 days. This remains below target.

The Royal College of Surgeons said more funding should alleviate some of the pressure on health boards, once approved.

"But that is still some way off, and with winter pressures already biting, there is little reprieve for patients waiting for treatment right now," said a spokesman.

Conservative health spokesman James Evans said the NHS was broken, while over the longest waits, the Welsh government had "broken their promise as patients continue to wait in pain for treatment".

Plaid Cymru health spokesman Mabon ap Gwynfor said: "Waiting lists have reached a record high for nine consecutive months.

"Any hope that Welsh Labour may have had that they could convince the Welsh people of their capability to run the NHS has disappeared."

The Welsh NHS Confederation said there was "no let-up" in demand, including increasing hospitalisation for flu and the highest number of "red" ambulance calls.

"NHS organisations have put a range of urgent and emergency care interventions in place, including rapid clinical screening of 999 callers and additional community welfare responders trained to attend appropriate 999 calls in their community," said director Darren Hughes.