Decline in London school pupil numbers to continue

A declining birth rate in London is responsible for a continued drop in demand for school places in the capital, according to a new report.

London Councils, a local government collective, has reported a predicted decrease of 3.6% in the capital's reception pupil numbers over the next four years.

It attributed this to a 20% decrease in the birth rate in London between 2012 and 2022.

Ian Edwards, from London Councils, said boroughs were supporting schools as the demand for places declined.

The cross-party organisation has also predicted a 2.9% decrease in demand for pupils beginning secondary school, roughly equivalent to 100 year 7 classes.

Lower pupil numbers impact the amount of funding a school receives, which can lead to schools making difficult decisions to balance their budgets.

This could include a reduction in staff numbers, which may impact a school's ability to support children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND), London Councils said.

Other decisions include merging or closing schools.

While the large majority of London boroughs are forecasting ongoing drops in pupil numbers, some boroughs are predicting growth.

According to the report, seven outer London boroughs are predicting an increase in reception pupil admissions and four outer London boroughs are anticipating a rise in Year 7 admissions over the next four years.

These London boroughs have not been named in the report.

London Councils said the declining birth rate in the capital was the main reason for the decrease in demand for school places.

Between 2012 and 2022 there was a reduction of 27,490 live births across the capital.

London Councils attributed this decline to a shortage of affordable family housing in the capital.

Mr Edwards, London Councils executive member for children and young people, said it was a "difficult climate" but councils were determined to ensure there were sufficient high quality school places in each local area.

"Boroughs will continue to work closely with key education partners in London to mitigate the impact of this drop in demand for school places on school budgets and children's achievements," he said.

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