How will the Spring Statement affect Wales?

If the slogan of Wednesday's Spring Statement is "the world has changed" then Wales will not escape the consequences – be they real world or political.

In the real world you might well be listening out for more details on the welfare cuts announced last week: Wales has some of highest levels of health-related benefits claims in the UK and more than a quarter of a million people on PIP.

In the political world, even if there are no tax rises or major policy announcements, tomorrow could well set the direction of travel for the year to come, which ends with the 2026 Senedd election.

Decisions made by Labour at Westminster could make Labour's fight to stay in charge in Cardiff Bay easier, or more difficult.

Welsh ministers have just celebrated having £1.5bn more to spend in their budget than they had initially thought, thanks to spending decisions made by the Chancellor Rachel Reeves in England.

Her budget last October controversially put up National Insurance contributions for employers, which will raise £25bn, and also increased public spending – albeit with the projection that the rate of increase would slow down over the course of the Parliament.

It was supposed to be a one-off budget where difficult decisions would be made, but… "the world has changed," and with it the potential impact on Welsh politics.

Polling suggests that voters in Wales are distinguishing more than ever between what is controlled at Westminster and what is controlled in Cardiff Bay.

But any squeeze on spending or rise in taxes, implemented by Labour at a UK level, could affect Labour prospects here – especially when that polling also suggests that the vote will be very close.

So even if Tuesday is more plotting a course than major announcements, what is coming further down the road?

In June we will get the results of the UK government's spending review and then a full Budget in the autumn.

The review is currently looking at how much is spent by each UK government department and is asking them to model some steep percentage cuts.

Any cuts would affect direct UK government spending in Wales – see welfare above - and also the level of consequential funding passed on to Welsh ministers.

If, for example, there are big cuts to the local government and education budgets in England, then there would be less for Wales.

Wales receives a proportion of any extra funding for England using a formula to take population size into account. If there are spending cuts for England then that money does not come.

There is also an expectation in Welsh government that any big Wales-specific announcements on things like investment or loosening the Welsh government's tight-ish borrowing powers would come, if at all, in June.

If there are no tax rises on Tuesday, what could Rachel Reeves "leave on the table" for the autumn Budget?

As things stand she is sticking to her self-imposed rules - that day-to-day spending is covered by tax receipts not borrowing and that debt is falling as a share of the size of the economy five years ahead.

But economic growth is flatlining, government borrowing costs are going up, there might be Trump tariffs to deal with and more needs to be spent on defence.

The Chancellor might decide that to make all that add up, she will need to put taxes up.

The political timing for Labour in Wales would be tricky: the Budget will be six months before Wales goes to the polls.

Even with voters distinguishing between the two Parliaments and their powers, that would be a tough sell on the doorstep for Welsh Labour.