Turkey protests are about far more than fate of Istanbul's mayor

Beneath the acrid smell of tear gas on the night air in Istanbul, there is a hint of something else - a whiff of panic on the part of Turkey's long-time leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

One of his rivals has been put behind bars - so far, so familiar.

But the jailing of Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, suggests President Erdogan is rattled – and he may have gone too far. The mayor's opposition Republican People's party (CHP), which is summoning vast crowds onto the streets, is certainly hoping so.

Ekrem Imamoglu - always smartly turned out, even as he prepared to be detained - is the main rival to Turkey's increasingly authoritarian leader. He could well replace him in presidential elections due to be held by 2028 - assuming he is free to contest them.

But this is far more than a row about the fate of Istanbul's mayor - charismatic though he may be.

Freedom and democracy have been steadily eroded in the Erdogan era. Many see this as a chance to call halt and stop the descent into all-out autocracy - if it's not already too late.

And they are coming out each night braving the riot police and their tear gas and rubber bullets, the ban on demonstrations, the road and bridge closures, and the risk of detention.

More than 1,000 people have been detained so far - in just 5 days - and counting. That's an indication of how easy it is to be arrested here.

Turkey claims to be a functioning democracy - and at face value, it is. There are elections. Voter turnout is usually high - Turks cherish their right to go to the polls and cast their ballots. Voting is largely fair, on the day itself.

The problem is what happens away from the polling stations.

Opposition politicians can be jailed. Critics intimidated. Protesters arrested. The media is largely government controlled. A tweet ridiculing the president could land you in a cell. By the time polling day comes around there's a tsunami of pro-government coverage and the opposition struggles to get a look in.

Ekrem Imamoglu is the type of politician who can cut through all this and reach the voters. He's media savvy and has been elected mayor of Istanbul three times. Now he's accused of embezzlement, taking bribes and running a criminal organisation.

If convicted he could be barred from standing in the presidential race. He's already appealing a previous conviction and sentence of two years in prison, for insulting election officials.

Turkey insists that its courts are independent and simply follow the law. Human rights activists here, and independent analysts, scoff at that idea.

The campaign group, Human Rights Watch, said the detention of the mayor, along with about 100 other municipal officials and politicians, is a "politically motivated move to stifle lawful political activities". In the past it has criticised "politicised decisions by courts" in Turkey.

In a post on X, where he has 9.6m followers, Imamoglu said the case against him was "a black stain on our democracy", adding: "I stand tall. I will never bow."

That's what Erdogan, 71, may be afraid of - an opponent who is younger, at 53, also appeals to conservative Turkish voters, and is ready for a long fight.

So, what happens now?

The protests could gain momentum and keep spreading. That will present a serious challenge to Erdogan. How long before his heavily armed security forces crack down even harder? How long before someone loses their life at a protest? There is a breaking point for every strongman regime, and it can come with a single bullet.

The opposition intends to keep up the pressure, and the demonstrations.

But after his two decades at the top, Erdogan still has plenty of loyal supporters. He controls virtually all the levers of power and seems determined to hang on. He will be banking on the demonstrations petering out, over time.

The president and his ruling AK party will be hoping the protesters will grow weary and go back to worrying about crushing inflation (39% in February), and the dwindling value of the Turkish lira, rather than free speech, and democracy.

The coming days and weeks will test the staying power of both sides. But if there are lessons to be learned from street protests in other authoritarian nations, a quick breakthrough looks unlikely.

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