Reeves disappointed after economy unexpectedly shrinks

Tom Espiner
BBC business reporter
Getty Images Two engineers wearing white hard hats looking at a piece of machineryGetty Images

The UK economy shrank unexpectedly in May, contracting for the second month in a row.

The economy contracted by 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, confounding analysts who expected to see slight growth.

The government has made boosting economic growth a key priority and Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the latest figure was "disappointing".

The fall in economic output was mainly driven by a drop in manufacturing, the ONS said, while retail sales were "very weak".

Oil and gas extraction was down, while car-making and the "often erratic" pharmaceutical industry were weaker, the ONS said.

The services sector grew overall in May, with legal firms recovering from the impact of changes to stamp duty thresholds the previous month.

The contraction in the economy in both April and May shows the outlook for growth "remains fragile", said Hailey Low, associate economist National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Government U-turns on spending cuts such as on welfare have eroded the financial buffer it has to cope with economic shocks, she added.

With businesses scaling back hiring intentions after wage and tax rises, and "strained" public finances, prospects for growth "remain muted in the medium term" Ms Low said.

Reeves faces "hard trade-offs" in her Budget in the autumn, "having to raise taxes or cut spending to meet her self imposed rules", she added.

'We're continuing to grow'

Mick Crosthwaite stands in a factory wearing a grey shirt.
Mick Crosthwaite, chief executive of veterinary imaging firm Hallmarq, says his firm is "doing well" but the economy is "tough"

The economy, is "tough" at the moment, with "high inflation and high interest rates", says Mick Crosthwaite, chief executive of veterinary imaging firm Hallmarq.

However, he says the firm is "doing well" because it is export driven.

"There's no doubt that we're in an unstable environment, geopolitically with tariffs, and taxes increasing in the UK, but as an innovative business that's exporting throughout the world, we're able to continue to grow," he says.

He adds that the business exports to 26 countries around the world, so "we're not tied just to the UK economy".

“A bar chart showing the estimated monthly GDP growth of the UK economy, from May 2023 to 2025. The figures are as follows: May 2023 (-0.4%), Jun 2023 (0.7%), Jul 2023 (-0.4%), Aug 2023 (0.0%), Sep 2023 (0.0%), Oct 2023 (-0.4%), Nov 2023 (0.3%), Dec 2023 (0.0%), Jan 2024 (0.5%), Feb 2024 (0.2%), Mar 2024 (0.6%), Apr 2024 (-0.1%), May 2024 (0.3%), Jun 2024 (-0.1%), Jul 2024 (-0.1%), Aug 2024 (0.2%), Sep 2024 (-0.1%), Oct 2024 (-0.2%), Nov 2024 (0.1%), Dec 2024 (0.4%), Jan 2025 (0.0%), Feb 2025 (0.5%), Mar 2025 (0.4%), Apr 2025 (-0.3%),May 2025 (-0.1%)”

Reacting to the latest GDP data, Reeves said "while today's figures are disappointing, I am determined to kickstart economic growth".

In the first three months of the year, the economy had grown by 0.7%. During this period it was boosted by exports as manufacturers raced to beat higher US import taxes, and as homebuyers rushed to complete purchases before the expiry of the stamp duty tax break.

This stronger activity earlier in the year meant that, despite May's contraction, the economy grew by 0.5% in the March-to-May period compared with the previous three months.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper said the figures put "storm clouds over the heads of many hardworking business owners and workers who have been rocked by the mistakes of this government".

She added the "jobs tax" was "completely misguided" and the government's "snail's pace approach to reducing trade barriers with Europe is holding back economic growth".

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said a "spotlight has been well and truly shone on the UK economy in the past week or so".

She said spending cuts had been "nigh on impossible to enact" and that government forecaster the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had released a "sobering" report on fiscal risks.

The OBR said on Tuesday that the UK's public finances were in a "relatively vulnerable position".

Reversing planned spending cuts, including on welfare and on the winter fuel allowance, plus backtracking on tax rises, have contributed to a continued rise in public debt, it said.

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