New leader and Welsh Labour in uncharted territory

Welsh Labour politicians enter what for many of them is uncharted territory next week.

After 25 years in power, the party has spent the past five months tearing itself apart over outgoing First Minister Vaughan Gething.

Most of Labour’s MSs have never been here before – only three of the 30 were in the then-assembly in 1999 when Rhodri Morgan took over following the resignation of Alun Michael.

The immediate challenge for Eluned Morgan, who on Tuesday – barring anything unforeseen - will become our third first minister of 2024, is to get back to the more familiar ground of discipline and public unity.

Ms Morgan does appear to be starting with an enormous amount of goodwill from her colleagues.

There is a sense that she had already "taken one for the team" by staying on as health secretary under Mr Gething, despite heavy hints that she wanted to leave.

Labour MSs are also acutely aware that voters will punish them at the 2026 Senedd election if they do not start to focus on Welsh issues rather than Welsh Labour.

But some of the wounds within the party after still raw.

Jeremy Miles would have stood for leader again, having lost earlier this year, but decided he could not unite his colleagues.

There were fears that some supporters of Mr Gething would have made his life too difficult.

Some of those wounds will take time to heal fully.

As that process begins, the first tests of leadership loom for Ms Morgan.

She will have to appoint a cabinet and take into account the need to unite the party.

There is an expectation in some quarters that there will be minimal change next week - a new health secretary and counsel general, before a bigger reshuffle later in the year.

Would Mr Miles be asked to take on the health brief? Some within Labour expect that to happen.

I will leave it to your judgement as to whether taking on that job - with its intractable problems – is a curse or an honour.

But it is a route map to becoming first minister – Mark Drakeford, Vaughan Gething and Ms Morgan herself have all done it.

Longer term, we do not know if Mr Miles still harbours his own leadership ambitions and whether he has an eye on beyond 2026.

There is also the question of what to do with Vaughan Gething - does he find himself back in cabinet or on the backbenches?

Since becoming Labour leader, Ms Morgan has been on a "listening exercise", which at some point will need to turn into a talking one.

The word "delivery" keeps cropping up.

There is certainly pressure to set her stall out early, both in terms of her vision and what she wants to achieve specifically by the time of the next election.

The Cardiff Central MS Jenny Rathbone has already talked of a "vacuum" around what Ms Morgan stands for, because there was no leadership contest and therefore no manifesto.

Health and the economy appear to be where some of the FM-elect’s colleagues would like her to focus, with a suggestion that some of the "guff" – as it was described to me – is put on the backburner.

Budget constraints and dauntingly high NHS waiting lists make her job even harder.

We are perhaps seeing the inevitable signs of apathy towards Welsh Labour after a quarter of a century in charge, and an appetite for change.

Their infighting in 2024 hasn’t helped and has hit them in polling for the Senedd.

If Eluned Morgan can unite her party, prove to voters that she has delivered and convince them that she represents a fresh start, perhaps some of the damage can be mitigated.

But it is a tough inheritance.

She will need all her political experience – and a party united behind her - to navigate the next 18 months successfully.