The constituencies with nail-biting election contests

Political parties come in an array of colours, but in some constituencies the electoral arithmetic gives a couple of them a better chance of winning than the rest.

Chipping Barnet in north London is very much a blue-versus-red battle. I headed to a nail bar to find out how voters are feeling.

At Colour Boutique in High Barnet I met Tracey, an NHS consultant, who was getting her toenails painted.

She said she wanted more funding for the NHS, “less bureaucracy and more patient-centred care”.

Sharon, who was in for a manicure, said she wanted to see more affordable homes built here.

“I know so many people who are living in Barnet who just cannot afford to buy anywhere and even the rents are through the roof," she said.

The Conservatives have held this constituency since its creation in the 1970s, but Labour have come close to taking it in recent years.

In 2019 Theresa Villiers held on with a majority of 1,212, with the Conservatives receiving 44.7% of the vote and Labour 42.6%.

It was an improvement on Ms Villiers’ 2017 election performance when she held the seat with a majority of just 353 votes.

But this time it is looking like an even tougher fight for her, because two years ago Labour had a major victory in the local elections, winning control of Barnet Council from the Conservatives.

In Whetstone, one of the areas where Labour won council seats, I caught up with the Conservative candidate in a coffee shop.

A former environment secretary and Northern Ireland secretary, Ms Villiers has held high office during the 19 years since she was first elected as the local MP.

She has opposed government house-building targets and plans by Transport for London to build homes on railway station car parks, such as at Cockfosters and High Barnet.

Ms Villiers, 56, told me: “Tower blocks in the suburbs is an overdevelopment”, and said that limited public transport meant that families, elderly people and those with mobility issues needed their cars.

She added: “That’s why I’m fighting so many of these anti-car proposals like building on station car parks and expanding the Ultra Low Emission Zone.”

Nationally, Labour has promised to make roads smoother and safer, which might resonate in a borough known for its potholes. But on Whetstone High Road voters told me they were concerned about the cost of living.

Gabriella said: “You’re conscious when you go to the supermarket, you might not be able to get that, all you’re thinking is, 'I can’t afford it this month'.”

Another voter, Mark, said he didn’t believe the tax pledges that were being made.

He said: “How anybody can say they’re not going to increase taxes I don’t know, because there’s no money to pay for it. I think we’re all going to have to pay a little bit more in tax, unfortunately.”

While this constituency is a marginal one, recent boundary changes could help the Conservatives as the Labour leaning-areas to the south have been pushed out, while more traditionally Conservative-leaning areas to the north have been brought in.

The Labour candidate, who used to be an economist at the Treasury, is aware of that challenge. I met Dan Tomlinson at another coffee shop in New Barnet, where he was handing out leaflets.

He’s already been joined by shadow frontbencher Ed Miliband, and even the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has popped by - a sign that the party really wants to win this seat.

One of the barriers to Labour winning here was concern about antisemitism under the party’s previous leader. Barnet has the largest Jewish population in the country and many in the community turned away from Labour during that time.

Mr Tomlinson told me it would be "one of the tasks of [his] political life, if elected, to rebuild the trust of the Jewish community".

On local issues he said crime and community safety were top priorities, but as someone who grew up in a low-income family he said he was also focused on ensuring more affordable homes were built in the area.

Liberal Democrat candidate Mark Durrant has promised to “fight for a fair deal for residents”, while the Green Party candidate David Farbey said his party would push for more "home insulation".

Other candidates standing in Chipping Barnet include Reform UK’s Hamish Haddow, Richard Hewison for Rejoin EU, and Independent Kay Lauer.

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