Is Scotland's drab February weather about to turn?

Christopher Blanchett
BBC Weather presenter
BBC Weather Watchers/Craig on the go A grey sky reflects down onto grey water at Newhaven Harbour.BBC Weather Watchers/Craig on the go
Skies across the Scottish central belt have lacked sunshine this February

It's winter, it's February, and it's cold and grey.

If you're feeling the winter blues a little more than normal, the weather certainly hasn't helped.

In the central belt of Scotland, we've recorded just a third of the total sunshine we normally would for February, yet we're almost two-thirds of the way through the month.

It has been cold too, with temperatures around 0.5C to 1C below the seasonal norm, when compared with a recent 30 year climate average.

But some areas have bucked the trend, including Stornoway on the Isle of Lewis which has already recorded higher than average hours of sunshine.

The town in the Outer Hebrides has seen 64 hours of sunshine so far this month, compared to just 22 hours in Glasgow.

Why is it so cold and grey?

High pressure is often associated with dry, fine and warm weather in summer, but in winter it can be very different.

The sun isn't strong enough to burn off the cloud and we can be left with days of grey, sometimes referred to as anticyclonic gloom.

For the first half of the month, we've had a large blocking area of high pressure, or anticyclone, dominating conditions.

It has been situated to our east across north west Europe and has helped to deflect our usual feed of mild, rainy weather from the Atlantic. Instead we've had cold east or south easterly winds.

A lot of cloud trapped within the high has been sent our way too. In addition, those east winds pick up extra moisture as they travel over the North Sea, resulting in cloud-laden skies here.

It's not been grey everywhere though. As ever with weather, there's winners and losers when the atmosphere becomes blocked.

BBC Weather Watcher Ed A bright blue sky with bright sunshine in a residential street.BBC Weather Watcher Ed
Parts of the Highlands and Islands have seen more sunshine, including Stornoway

In Scotland, our mountains have been stopping the cloud's progress north-westwards across the country. It's the same process we see more typically in the opposite direction.

So instead of Dundee revelling in its moniker of Scotland's sunniest city, it's the Highlands and islands that have been bathed in winter sunlight.

Stornoway has already surpassed the total amount of sunshine we'd normally see here in February with 64 hours - and there's a third of the month still to go.

Shetland has fared well too, tapping into a zone of drier air moving in from Norway and resulting in sunnier skies by day and clear conditions by night - timing perfectly with an active aurora to allow sightings of the Northern Lights.

Double digit temperatures

Over the coming days the blocking high loses its dominating grip, allowing the Atlantic to roar back to life.

That means we'll start to see more appreciable rain as weather fronts are allowed in - but also some much milder weather too.

Instead of a cold easterly, we'll flip like a switch to a much milder south or south westerly flow and that will deliver a stark change in temperature.

By the end of this week, we'll almost certainly be in double digits everywhere, with some spots into the low, possibly even mid-teens.

However, we'll also see weather fronts moving in from the Atlantic and that means rain and some rather breezy conditions at times too.