What the world is looking for in Canada's election
Getty ImagesCanadians are heading to the polls to decide on their next government at a pivotal moment in their relations with the US.
The country faces a huge economic challenge in the shape of Trump tariffs on Canadian exports to the US.
And the US president's pursuit of Canada as part of an expanded US has increased anxieties about national security.
But this election is not just about a relationship between these neighbours and former allies, it is being closely watched in several other parts of the world too.
China hopes for a reset in relations
By Laura Bicker, China correspondent
As rivalry between the United States and China has intensified over the last decade, Canada has often sided with Washington.
But China sees an opportunity in this election and in Donald Trump's trade war to change that.
Its ambassador in Ottawa has said Beijing is offering to form a partnership with Canada to push back against American "bullying".
"China is Canada's opportunity, not Canada's threat," Wang Di told The Canadian Press.
This is an attempt at a relationship reset by China. But it's one not entirely welcomed by the prospective leaders.
Prime minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney described Beijing as "the biggest security threat to Canada".
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has described Beijing as an autocracy that disrupts the world order.
Chinese state media has said the elections are "undoubtedly a key reason" behind these tough stances. But Beijing may also be hoping that Canadians have short memories.
China imprisoned two Canadians in 2018, just after authorities in Vancouver arrested the Huawei Technologies chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou at the request of the US.
Canada was stuck in the middle of the diplomatic standoff between the two superpowers.
China will hope the geopolitical landscape has shifted and whoever wins the election should expect a call from Beijing as it looks for like-minded allies in its fight against Washington.
Lessons to learn for the UK
By Lyse Doucet, chief international correspondent
Boring country. Polite people.
That's how I used to hear Canada described in Britain. Now Canada's story is a story which matters - "Maple Leaf v MAGA election" is how the London-based Economist summed it up, describing the former Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, as "Captain Canada".
British politicians may look in the election outcome for lessons they will learn.
Canada's incumbent Liberal Party, once trailing by double digits, now leads in opinion polls against its Conservative rival whose leader Pierre Poilievre is seen to lean into the kind of culture wars being fought south of the border and across the Atlantic too.
Carney's retaliatory approach to US tariffs and threats, which earned him political points, has contrasted with Keir Starmer's conciliatory tone. But even Carney is changing tack. He now admits "we've moved on from dollar-for-dollar tariffs" - the US economy is 10 times the size of Canada's.
What Canada's new PM does next will be watched closely too. If it's Carney, he's already said "We don't have to do a deal in the short term."
That chimes with Britain's calm that it's not going to rush into any trade deals either.
This election could reshape relations with India
By Soutik Biswas, India correspondent
India-Canada relations have been strained, especially under Justin Trudeau, following allegations of Indian involvement in the 2023 killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. The fallout triggered diplomatic expulsions and a sharp breakdown in trust.
The Canadian election could reshape ties.
Liberal leader Mark Carney, who succeeded Trudeau, has hinted at mending fences with India, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, a populist, may take a different path.
Meanwhile, recent incidents like the vandalism of a Sikh gurdwara and a Hindu temple with pro-Khalistan graffiti have spotlighted concerns about Sikh extremism, which could influence how Canadian authorities address the issue post-election.
"Both [party] leaders have economic recovery as their focus. And both will have to factor in Canadian public concerns about supposed Indian interference in their domestic politics," Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, South Asia practice head of Eurasia Group, told me.
Canada hosts nearly 1.8 million Indo-Canadians and one million non-resident Indians, making up over 3% of its population. It is also home to an estimated 427,000 Indian students. Bilateral services trade between the two countries touched CAD 13.49 billion in 2023.
Indian media is closely watching the election, aware that its outcome could significantly impact the future of India-Canada ties - and the broader diaspora dynamics.
Australia sees ways it could prosper
By Katy Watson, Australia correspondent
While Canada prepares to go to the polls in what's been billed as a historic vote, Australians have been somewhat distracted by their own federal elections coming up this Saturday.
Keen election watchers among them will probably be wondering whether what happens in Ottawa will be replicated in Canberra and how much the spectre of Trump will influence the vote.
Australia and Canada have a lot in common - both wealthy, secure nations with huge energy resources and a shared colonial history. They are fellow members of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, an Anglosphere group whose members also include the US, New Zealand and the UK.
But, say experts, of all the English-speaking countries, they are probably the two who could be doing more together.
"When we think of all these special relationships that Australia has - obviously with New Zealand, with the US in the security sense, with Britain for historic reasons, Canada's the missing link in bilateral terms," says Ben Wellings, associate professor of politics and international relations at Monash University.
There's been talk by Canada's Conservatives of reviving the idea of a trade alliance with the UK, Australia and New Zealand, known as CANZUK, if they win.
But with the US now pursuing a more isolationist approach on the global stage, whoever becomes the next Canadian prime minister is likely to explore more tie-ups with other close allies - and Australia could expect to benefit.
Winner's biggest challenge could be from US
By North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher
US-Canada relations are usually pretty staid.
A common refrain about the two nations is that they share the "longest unguarded land border in the world".
But nothing has been boring about relations between the US and its northern neighbour since Donald Trump returned to the White House earlier this year. The US president's criticism of US-Canada trade relations and his open speculation about how Canada would be better off as part of the US has set up Monday night's Canadian election as a pivotal one for both nations.
At least so far, Trump mostly has held his tongue when it comes to his thoughts about the election. Where he frequently sparred with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, his words about Mark Carney, the new prime minister and Liberal Party leader, have been more measured.
One time he did weigh in, last month, he said Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was "stupidly no friend of mine" and that he would prefer that the Liberals prevailed. Trump added, however, that he didn't really care who won. And since then he's been studiously non-committal.
That may all change after Monday's results.
No matter which candidate wins, he will probably have to deal with an American government that is willing to reopen old disputes and rethink seemingly long-settled agreements.
